Tell Me About it, Bob: $847 in 3.25 hours of Omaha

[shipitfish]

Bob Ciaffone's first book on Omaha was called Omaha Hold'Em Poker: The Action Game. He was certainly correct about that. I had been lately playing mostly short-handed limit HE along with "Sit-and-Go" one-table tournaments (I may write about some of those experiences later). However, recently PL and NL have been piquing my interest more and more. I had always preferred live-action PL/NL to the online equivalents, since reads are so central to the game. In limit, you often "have to call", even if you read is right 80% or more of the time, because the pot odds demand it in big pots. In PL/NL, you have to be much more sure of yourself.

However, the primary "reading" you can do online is detecting betting patterns and time people take to act. That's not much information to go on, even if such information is pretty adequate for limit. I guess I always assumed that PL/NL would be more difficult online. I was used to soft NL tournament fields, but I was worried about the larger cash games ($200 buy-in and up), as the math-focused "push and hope" strategy that becomes part of late tourney strategy is useless in cash games.

Well, I finally figured those cash games were worth a try. Plus, in my constant endeavor to be a poker generalist, I always try to find some of my poker time to work on other games besides limit HE. Sometimes, it hurts my short term EV to "catch up" in my skills, but I think it's worth it in the long term. And, online is a great way to practice the basics so they are well honed for live games, when more factors come into play. Fortunately, I've found that just understanding basic principles and strong general poker skills can be very profitable in both NL HE and PL Omaha. The PL Omaha games I played this weekend gave me a great context to think about some PL Omaha problems.

I decided to sit in the biggest pot limit Omaha game (which is typically abbreviated PLO) that is available on Party Poker. That PLO game has $1/$2 blind with a $100 maximum buy-in. I didn't really want to start in very small games, so I get some realistic experience that might be actually as profitable as limit equivalents.

---

Lost My Whole Stack on the First Hand

It started going "well" when I first sat down. I got dealt the A J Q Q right there in my first BB. Two players limped in, and the next raised to $13. I called, as that's a pretty strong Omaha holding. The two limpers called behind me. Now, I hadn't played PLO in quite a while, so I was a little bit concerned to be playing a big pot before I could get my bearings. I saw the flop of J 7 Q, I got even more worried. I flopped top set, but I know enough about Omaha to know it's often a drawing hand: if you get action, you need the board to pair to win.

I decided to check and see what developed. I would probably bet the turn if it was checked around and the flush didn't come, and I was considering a check-raise here on the flop depending on what I saw. I mainly wanted to see how aggressive things would get. Remember, I had just sat down!

One of the limp-callers immediately bet the pot for $63. Two of the limp-callers folded, and the preflop raiser went all-in for $93. The action came back to me with $207 in the pot that I could cover. (That number assumed the auto-call from the first bettor for his last dollars.) I'd just sat down, so I had $87 left in front of me, and the pot was laying me 1-to-2.37. I sat and thought, "am I really worse than a 1-to-2.5 underdog and a two flush on board?" I imagined the worst hand for me to be up against is something like A T 9 K. I figure, well, I can't be a 1-to-2.5 underdog to that one, right? (As it turns out, heads up, I'm only a 1-to-1.3 underdog against that hand!)

But, it's wasn't just that one hand I had to contend with. I knew that the other guy has something good. I figure if one dude has that monster draw, the other must have another set, probably the jacks. So, I figure that the best hand the other guy could have is something like J J T 9. I'm a huge favorite to that, but he holds many of my full-house outs. However, later math showed that, if those are the two hands out, I'm still only a 1-to-1.62 underdog.

Of course, I hadn't played Omaha in a long time, nor had I memorized a lot of odds for of how hands match up like I have in HE. But, I had a feeling I just couldn't be worse than 1-to-2.37 against (the later math proved me right). So I called. The board completed to J 7 Q K 5. "Oh well", I thought, "the spades got there", I lost. And I did lose. But you won't believe the hands that got turned over. The first flop bettor (who limp-called the preflop raise) showed Q 2 4 J. He had only top two pair and no redraws. He was, in fact, drawing dead against me. The preflop raiser, who went all-in over the top on the flop, had 7 A 9 K. He's got a 4-out straight draw on the flop and the nut flush draw. That's it. As it turns out, I was a slight favorite on the flop, my odds were 1-to-.71 against. As I watched my $100 disappear in my very first hand, I tabbed over to my pokernum program (from the GPL'd PokerSource software) to get these results:

Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Qs Js 7d
cards           win   %win      lose  %lose       tie   %tie        EV
Ac Qc Qd Jd     386  57.96       275  41.29         5   0.75     0.583
As 7s Kc 9d     275  41.29       386  57.96         5   0.75     0.417
4s 2c Qh Jh       0   0.00       666 100.00         0   0.00     0.000

I burst out laughing when I saw the original bettor was drawing dead. Meanwhile, I realized that while I thought I was calling for odds, I was calling as a favorite! I immediately rebought and thought, "Gee, if I can get my money in as a favorite like this, I'll do well for sure."

---

... And I Went on to Win Big!

I went on to win $847 in just a matter of 3.25 hours over the weekend! Just by tight, aggressive play -- picking up the occasional small pot when it was obvious no one had much, and playing huge pots when I was a favorite or had odds. People just love to put all their money in with simple 9-out flush draws against huge hands, like made straights with runner-runner redraws. The pots would get huge when the flops introduced lots of draws. Everyone would be shoving their money in with all kinds of weak draws, and then people would call all-in behind looking at wonderful odds, but they would be drawing dead or near dead because the earlier bettors had totally dominating draws. Bob really meant it when he said it was an action game ... and this is the highest buy-in Omaha game on Party Poker!

---

The biggest Omaha Pot I've Ever Won (So Far)

It just got better from there. In the SB, a half hour later, I got dealt 9 J J 8. It had been raised preflop by someone who usually raised with big pairs, so I figured that I had to worry if I didn't get top set, and that I shouldn't rely too much on flush draws. However, one person had already called the raise cold, and it was looking to develop into a huge multi-way pot (as I knew the two limpers behind the early raiser would call) that I was sure I wanted to play. I called the $11, and we saw the flop six handed for $11 each.

The flop was good but not great for me: 9 7 J. I really didn't know what to do for sure. The pot was already huge ($77), and I felt that I should probably look to get heads up against the preflop raiser, who is the most likely person to be holding the nut club draw. I was a bit worried about T8, but figured my outs (except the 9 I hold in my own hand) are probably live to win. I can't be that bad off. I'd appreciate, though, Omaha players commenting on whether this is not as good a spot as I think; my feeling in is that in this game, top set is a monster because it always gets called multi-way. Anyway, I bet the pot, figuring I'd be playing the hand for all my chips.

To my amazement, three people went all-in behind me, creating three side pots in the process. I look quickly around the screen, and think, "Ok, made straight, a few flush draws. The flush draws have each others outs, which is good for me, and for the straight. But I need the board to pair to beat that straight that must be out there.

I was very glad to see the final board of 9 7 J 9 2. Since I held a 9, I knew I had won. I took a pot of $451.60; I made $350.10 in one hand.

However, my deep fears about that made straight and the flush draws were, despite the amazing action, not true. I was up against T 3 Q Q, which is only a 1-to-1.22 underdog to me (when heads up). However, I was right about the flush draws being in competition with each other, as the preflop raiser, who came with us, had A A 4 5. The nice effect of adding this hand into the mix is that the guy with the Queens and the flush draw becomes a huge underdog, while he meanwhile ties up two of the nut flush draw's outs. I still win half the time when both are in.

The final hand that came with us for all his chips? I couldn't believe it; he had the A K 7 J He had a mere two pair which was drawing near dead (to running sevens and the straights he can make without the clubs). With him in the hand, however, I became a slight underdog (1-to-1.1 against), but was getting huge odds, of course. Here's the pokernum numbers:

Omaha Hi: 528 enumerated boards containing Jc 7c 9h
cards           win   %win      lose  %lose       tie   %tie        EV
Qs Tc 3c Qh     103  19.51       425  80.49         0   0.00     0.195
9s Jd 8d Jh     250  47.35       278  52.65         0   0.00     0.473
Ac 5c Ad 4h     168  31.82       360  68.18         0   0.00     0.318
As Ks Js 7h       7   1.33       521  98.67         0   0.00     0.013

I am just amazed at this loose play. Of course, it's very high variance, but look how all the "reasonable" players get lots of dead money from these people who will put it all in there with just a measly two pair! And, when these all-in fests happen, the top set holding does well because it can win without improving, even if the other all-in hands hold its outs. Not so for the flush draws, who often hold each other's outs.

I am sure this thinking only works when you know you are getting huge action from pathetic holdings. But, I have to admit that online PL Omaha games will be a big part of my weekly play from now on!

---

A Total Freeroll!

Another huge pot I played involved a total freeroll when heads-up. Pre-flop, I raised a limper when I held K K 5 8. I got cold-called by a tight player who overvalued big pairs. I knew he'd reraise with aces, so when he just called and saw a flop, I didn't think my flush draws were in bad shape. (The limper also called, but I wasn't worried about this hand.) I began to think the tight player might have two suited queens or something like that. The flop fell 7 J 4. I liked my holding; I felt that the kings might be good at the moment, and that the clubs or straight were good if they came. I was prepared to put all my money in, but wasn't sure I'd get action. I bet a little less than the pot ($30 into $36), and was not surprised when the limper folded, but was amazed when the tight player went all-in. I figured he'd flopped a set of jacks, which meant I had just draws (to a bigger set, a straight and a flush), so I called with 1-to-2.19 odds. I figured those were good odds. as long as he didn't hold something like: J J A 6 (top set and a total freeroll on the flush, and holding one of my straight outs). If he had that, I'd be a 1-to-6.52 underdog. But, I figure I can't spend the game in fear of the worst possible match up, even against a tight player.

As it turned out, I could hardly have been in a better spot. He had K 3 K Q. His flush draw was useless; I had him tied at the moment; all my outs were good if they came. In fact, this is how bad it was for him:

Omaha Hi: 820 enumerated boards containing Js 7c 4c
cards           win   %win      lose  %lose       tie   %tie        EV
Kc 8c Kh 5h     363  44.27        33   4.02       424  51.71     0.701
Ks Qc 3c Kd      33   4.02       363  44.27       424  51.71     0.299

In other words, he was a 1-to-23.87 underdog when the money went in. I won a $106.45 pot. Admittedly, this one was just luck, but I did learn a lesson: Queen-high flush draws just can't be good if there's action. Glad I was on the other side of that while learning that.

---

Sorry, Nick, But My Omaha Rush Couldn't Be Stopped

Eventually, I talked nick_marden into playing some Omaha over on Pokerroom (where he plays exclusively), and we played the only PL Omaha game that was running: a $0.25/$0.5 blind, $50 maximum buy-in. I had some really good hands in this one, too, and did really well. I did end up taking Nick's stack, though in this hand (link mainly for my memory and Nick's, since you need to have been in the hand to see). Since everyone else can't read the hand history link, I'll describe the hand.

I was dealt the Q Q A 3 in middle position. I limped, along with the blinds and three others, including Nick. The flop was J Q 4. Since my first hand in this Omaha rush I'd been on, I realized that top set with just drawing possibilities against you isn't too bad a spot and worth playing. My thought was that, since I had no backup draws, I'd let the pot get big on the flop, and be prepared throw my hand away if the turn was really bad news, like a spade or a straight card. I have developed this strategy, because in limping-only PL Omaha games (as Pokerroom is, whereas Party has lots of preflop raising), it's hard to get the pot big enough on the flop to really protect you hand. So, I've found it's worth it to let a card come off, and if it really doesn't change the nuts, you can charge people lots to draw with only one card to come. Often times, you get paid off by holdings like a turned two pair or turned trips, believe it or not!

The BB bet the flop, and got three callers (me and Nick included). The turn was a perfect blank, 3. I was ready to pounce. The BB bet $4 into the $9 pot, and I raised it to $18. To my complete surprise, Nick went all-in for $31.75 behind me, and the blinds folded. I figured that Nick probably had a spade draw, perhaps with a pair. He was, unfortunately, a bit too used to HE and overvalued this holding. As it turned out, he actually had a stronger holding; he showed the 3 8 4 3. Fortunately for me, his set had just one out, and there were not many spade outs. (I think the BB might have also folded a spade draw.) The river was the K, and I won the $75.50 pot.

Nick recognized that he made a mistake in playing that hand in the first place, He was 1-to-2.32 underdog against my hand preflop, a 1-to-2.69 underdog on the flop, and 1-to-4 underdog on the turn (and if two spades were dead in the other guy's hand, he's actually as bad as 1-to-5.33). Of course, he thought the turn was a big help to him, but it (basically) barely improved his situation. I was sad to take all of Nick's stack just to teach him this lesson.

I am generally happy with how soft the online PL Omaha has been. I just hope it doesn't lull me into a style of play that'll make me a big fish in "real" Omaha games.

Comments

Stronger than you think with Ac Qc Qd Jd, part 1

[dkwad.livejournal.com]

You're much much stronger than you seem to think you are in the A Q Q J hand.

One of the limp-callers immediately bet the pot for $63. Two of the limp-callers folded, and the preflop raiser went all-in for $93. The action came back to me with $207 in the pot that I could cover. (That number assumed the auto-call from the first bettor for his last dollars.) I'd just sat down, so I had $87 left in front of me, and the pot was laying me 1-to-2.37.

Not a big diff, but I count immediate pot odds of (63 + 63 + 87) : 87 or 2.45:1 (counting the raiser's bet as 87 rather than 93, since you are all in for 87). If the original flop bettor calls the raise, you'll be getting (63 + 87 + 87) : 87 or 2.72:1.

You have top set on a flop of Q J 7. Let's ignore the J in your hand for a moment. With top set, if your pairing cards aren't dead, you are about 2:1 against making a boat by the river. So, using intuition rather than math, a heads up Omaha opponent can't be more than a 2:1 favorite over you if you hold top set for the current nuts. (In a game with more hole cards—e.g., 8-card Omaha—this wouldn't be true, since an opponent could hold cards that interfere with your boat draw PLUS cards that give him a monster draw to beat you. With 4-card Omaha, though, adding interference cards detracts too much from your opponent's drawing chances. The exact numbers depend on the mechanics of poker draws, which is why we're intuiting rather than proving this.)

Stronger than you think with Ac Qc Qd Jd, part 2

[dkwad.livejournal.com]

In Omaha, things don't get even that bad. Your absolute worst case for top set nuts heads up is top set with no redraws vs. 20-out straight wrap + flush draw + backdoor flush draw (with "20-out straight wrap," I am using the terminology from Ciaffone's book; 4 of the 20 straight outs are actually usurped by the flush draw). In this worst case (e.g., 9 9 2 2 vs. J T 7 6 on a 9 8 3 flop), you have a 38.2% (http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=9h+8h+3d&d=&h=9s+9c+2s+2c%0D%0AJh+Th+7d+6d) chance of winning. We have to go to the totally pathologic case where you interfere maximally with your own draw before you drop below 2:1: with 9 9 2 2 vs. J T 7 6 on a 9 8 2 flop, you have a 33.0% (http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=9h+8h+2d&d=&h=9s+9c+2s+2c%0D%0AJh+Th+7d+6d) chance of winning.

Stronger than you think with Ac Qc Qd Jd, part 3

[dkwad.livejournal.com]

In your hand, your worst case heads up is to be up against K T 9 8 (the A K T 9 might seem more attractive to your opponent since it has more nut outs, but nuttiness doesn't matter against your holding and the KT98 has more straight outs). That holding gives you a 41.5% (http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=Js+7d+Qs&d=&h=Ac+Jd+Qc+Qd%0D%0AKd+Ts+9d+8s) or 1.41:1 chance of winning. Easy call.

Three-handed, your worst case gives the third player JJ77, and it winds up something like this:

Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Qs Js 7d
cards          win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Ac Qc  Qd  Jd  156  23.42   510  76.58    0  0.00  0.234
Ts 8s  Kd  9d  476  71.47   190  28.53    0  0.00  0.715
Jc 7c  Jh  7h   34   5.11   632  94.89    0  0.00  0.051

Woohoo, finally a case where it's wrong to get your money in! Thankfully, this is an unreasonable, monsters-under-the-bed situation. If we drop just one of his 7s, it changes to a clear call:

Omaha Hi: 666 enumerated boards containing Qs Js 7d
cards          win   %win  lose  %lose  tie  %tie     EV
Ac Qc  Qd  Jd  210  31.53   456  68.47    0  0.00  0.315
Ts 8s  Kd  9d  455  68.32   211  31.68    0  0.00  0.683
Jc 5c  Jh  7h    1   0.15   665  99.85    0  0.00  0.002

This is your realistic worst case: one opponent with a set (and a stray pair to boot) and another with an absolute monster draw. And you still have an easy call. Most of the time it will be much much better than this, as you saw when the holdings were revealed in your hand. Most of the time, your opponents will hold some mix of straight and flush draws that interfere with each other, and/or two pair. When I am in a 3-handed PLO pot with top set for the current nuts on the flop, I always assume I have at least .33 equity and I raise and reraise to the felt for value (if I were playing with a 20,000 BB stack, I *might* stop to rethink this, but probably not); it is very very hard for your opponents to have the nightmare holdings that put you under .33, so, versus your opponents' overall hand distribution, you are always at least .33. When I am in a 2-handed PLO pot with top set for the current nuts, I definitely will stop raising, and may not even raise once if a total rock bets into me on a draw-heavy flop.

Finally, if you don't have it already, you should pick up Reuben's How Good Is Your Pot-Limit Omaha? (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1904468071/) And Super System 2 :)