In Omaha, things don't get even that bad. Your absolute worst case for top set nuts heads up is top set with no redraws vs. 20-out straight wrap + flush draw + backdoor flush draw (with "20-out straight wrap," I am using the terminology from Ciaffone's book; 4 of the 20 straight outs are actually usurped by the flush draw). In this worst case (e.g., 9 9 2 2 vs. J T 7 6 on a 9 8 3 flop), you have a 38.2% (http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=9h+8h+3d&d=&h=9s+9c+2s+2c%0D%0AJh+Th+7d+6d) chance of winning. We have to go to the totally pathologic case where you interfere maximally with your own draw before you drop below 2:1: with 9 9 2 2 vs. J T 7 6 on a 9 8 2 flop, you have a 33.0% (http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=9h+8h+2d&d=&h=9s+9c+2s+2c%0D%0AJh+Th+7d+6d) chance of winning.
Stronger than you think with Ac Qc Qd Jd, part 2
Date: 2005-02-10 20:17 (UTC)