In your hand, your worst case heads up is to be up against K T 9 8 (the A K T 9 might seem more attractive to your opponent since it has more nut outs, but nuttiness doesn't matter against your holding and the KT98 has more straight outs). That holding gives you a 41.5% (http://twodimes.net/poker/?g=o&b=Js+7d+Qs&d=&h=Ac+Jd+Qc+Qd%0D%0AKd+Ts+9d+8s) or 1.41:1 chance of winning. Easy call.
Three-handed, your worst case gives the third player JJ77, and it winds up something like this:
Woohoo, finally a case where it's wrong to get your money in! Thankfully, this is an unreasonable, monsters-under-the-bed situation. If we drop just one of his 7s, it changes to a clear call:
This is your realistic worst case: one opponent with a set (and a stray pair to boot) and another with an absolute monster draw. And you still have an easy call. Most of the time it will be much much better than this, as you saw when the holdings were revealed in your hand. Most of the time, your opponents will hold some mix of straight and flush draws that interfere with each other, and/or two pair. When I am in a 3-handed PLO pot with top set for the current nuts on the flop, I always assume I have at least .33 equity and I raise and reraise to the felt for value (if I were playing with a 20,000 BB stack, I *might* stop to rethink this, but probably not); it is very very hard for your opponents to have the nightmare holdings that put you under .33, so, versus your opponents' overall hand distribution, you are always at least .33. When I am in a 2-handed PLO pot with top set for the current nuts, I definitely will stop raising, and may not even raise once if a total rock bets into me on a draw-heavy flop.
Finally, if you don't have it already, you should pick up Reuben's How Good Is Your Pot-Limit Omaha? (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1904468071/) And Super System 2 :)
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Stronger than you think with Ac Qc Qd Jd, part 3
Date: 2005-02-10 20:17 (UTC)Three-handed, your worst case gives the third player JJ77, and it winds up something like this:
Woohoo, finally a case where it's wrong to get your money in! Thankfully, this is an unreasonable, monsters-under-the-bed situation. If we drop just one of his 7s, it changes to a clear call:
This is your realistic worst case: one opponent with a set (and a stray pair to boot) and another with an absolute monster draw. And you still have an easy call. Most of the time it will be much much better than this, as you saw when the holdings were revealed in your hand. Most of the time, your opponents will hold some mix of straight and flush draws that interfere with each other, and/or two pair. When I am in a 3-handed PLO pot with top set for the current nuts on the flop, I always assume I have at least .33 equity and I raise and reraise to the felt for value (if I were playing with a 20,000 BB stack, I *might* stop to rethink this, but probably not); it is very very hard for your opponents to have the nightmare holdings that put you under .33, so, versus your opponents' overall hand distribution, you are always at least .33. When I am in a 2-handed PLO pot with top set for the current nuts, I definitely will stop raising, and may not even raise once if a total rock bets into me on a draw-heavy flop.
Finally, if you don't have it already, you should pick up Reuben's How Good Is Your Pot-Limit Omaha? (http://www.amazon.com/exec/obidos/tg/detail/-/1904468071/) And Super System 2 :)