A Month (or more) as a Full-Time Pro

[shipitfish]

I mentioned recently that my lack of entries in January was caused in part by an experiment I was conducting. The experiment actually continues, as I decided to extend it, but I will give a brief report for the standings right now.

The crux of the experiment was to see if I could make enough money to keep my current lifestyle should I play poker professionally full-time rather than merely part-time. An analysis I did last year, showed that playing only 16 hours a week, I was earning at a rate of around $10-$14/hour. Obviously, in my non-poker life, I make more than that, so this part-time job couldn't replace my full-time one at this rate.

So, I began to think about how I could increase the earn rate substantially. One thought was to move up in stakes from my usual $1/$2 and $2/$5 NL/PL (or $5/$10 and $10/$20 limit) to something much bigger. This is a dangerous move, especially if I were to play full-time hours, because I have no history (other than a few short sessions) in bigger games, even if I am adequately bankrolled.

I decided to do some more poker reading and thinking about the game. I looked for a few leaks. But, as I started my month of full-time hours, I still found myself winning around $12/hour in the $1/$2 NL HE games I was playing. It's clear to me that against reasonably strong opponents (i.e., the type who don't often stack off with one pair, and can read situations reasonably well), that's about the best I'm going to get.

So, it leaves two basic choices: move up in stakes, or find better games. I'd eliminated the former, so I was left with the latter.

I had done the first 14 days of the month playing the usual online sites. But, Full Tilt had been inundated with the Party Poker refugee sharks, and the games that were awesome in December ($1/$2, $200 max NL HE 6-max) had become, by mid-January, a constant battle to take money from the occasional weak player. Even Ultimate Bet, the once tight-weak-but-overplay-one-pair paradise has increased in its occurrence of multi-tabling pros. Other than the heads up games there — an extremely high variance form of poker — there wasn't much dead money to collect.

This brought me to around the 14th of January. I thought about focusing to live play. But, the costs are heavy. I could rent a cars (I've vowed to never use Greyhound again) to visit AC regularly, but I couldn't get away from work that easily. (I have a lot going on at my other job right now, too.) The NYC clubs are profitable, but nowhere near as good at the AC games. They are also hyper-aggressive, which leads to more variance.

So, I decided I had to become a online poker game selection specialist. I bought into every site I ever heard of. I sweated games. I found out when and where the really horrible players show up. And, my results improved. From the 14th to the 31st, I earned $79/hour multi-tabling $1/$2 ($200 max), $.5/$1 ($100 max), and occasionally $2/$4 ($400 max) NL HE. Plus, I made an additional $1,850 in online bonuses and promotions. These are results one could live on.

Of course, I don't think these will be typical by any means. I don't seem to have gotten amazingly lucky, it's really that I have found fields with opponents whose knowledge of the game is so abysmal that they cannot help but lose large amounts of money. Such fields are a rare find, and online poker moves and changes so fast (especially given the financial unraveling occurring in the USA), that there is absolutely no certainty that any good games will be available in just a few months.

However, my live sessions in Atlantic City and other casinos show that it's likely that I could probably earn a reasonable living as a full-time pro. Let's assume my results are highly anomalous (one month can't really show you a long term thing), and that if my game selection skills stay excellent, I'll earn somewhere at the halfway point between my historical results and these recent ones. That's certainly being optimistic, but it gives a good “best case” scenario of full-time pro life. If this estimate is accurate, I'd make my hourly rate somewhere $35-$45/hour. That's $75,000 to $90,000 each year, assuming normal work weeks and two weeks of vacation. That's completely without other benefits, of course.

However, even in the best case, when online poker ends, I'd doubt I'll be able to make much more than $50,000 or so a year at it unless my skill improves substantially or the games stay as easy as they are. (I think the latter is highly unlikely, and the former would be a substantial investment on my part). Even if the games stay good, much of the great EV comes from the multi-tabling and fast dealing online. Even $50k/year might be optimistic for live play unless I get much better and move way up in stakes.

I suppose I'm not giving too much about my personal finances away when I say that $50,000/year without benefits and only two weeks of vacation/sick days is not really close to my current lifestyle.

That said, I'm thinking of continuing with the experiment a while longer. I'm curious to see how long I can keep up the win rate. While it leads to very little free time between the two full-time jobs, I'd like to have a go for one more month and see how it works out. I'll keep you all posted, but it'll be sporadic.

Comments

[swolfe.livejournal.com]

i'm not sure if we've talked about it before, but playing live has been so much more lucrative despite only playing 35-45 hands/hr because the players are generally so much worse and there's a lot of extra information that makes people easier to read. even the $5/$10NL and $10/$25NL i've played in have more bad players than any $1/$2NL game i've seen online in the past 2 years.

especially with the current online bullshit, i think that the serious players that want to continue making money will have to move at least some part of their game to live play.

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

I generally agree with you. However, in my case, while my live $1/$2 NL results have been very excellent (I'd have to check for exact numbers, but roughly I make $40/hour in them), I am losing player in live $2/$5 NL games. As you recall when I visited you, for example, I was down $800 for the trip until the $1/$2 NL game at the casino, where I won it all back and then some in an eight hour session .

Also, in NYC, the underground games are somewhat tougher than they are in Dallas (and the people are generally total assholes here, which makes it more excruciating to play). In Atlantic City, I could probably work my way to being able to beat the $2/$5 NL games, but I just don't know about $5/$10. It's hard for me to imagine; I tend to think I'd eek out some wins but I'd be grinding for an hourly rate that's not that much more than what I make at $1/$2 NL but with substantially higher variance.

Remember, you're a better player than me. :) I think it's just a natural talent thing; some people have more a knack for this than others. I have a pretty good knack for it, but perhaps just enough to be merely a moderately winning player. Despite hard effort and study for many years, I am still only beating tough $1/$2 NL HE games for $12-14/hour and very soft ones for $40-70/hour.

That said, I iterate that I agree with you on the primary point. Live poker, probably in the casino environment, is where the best game selection is going to be moving forward; we're playing out the last days of Internet poker. People will give up poker as a regular thing online as it gets difficult, and return their home games. However, hundreds of thousands of people take occasional trips to casinos for fun each day. The boom has shown many of them that poker is more fun than the other casino table games, so they will fill the casino games for many years to come on their occasional vacations.

[jellymillion.livejournal.com]

Interesting analysis.

I don't know how far $50K gets you in NYC, but I expect it's about as far as it would in London. It would cover my kids' school fees but maybe not the cost of getting them to school!

I think I increased my overall earnings last year by about 10% thanks to online poker. When I look at the hours it took to earn that it's clear that I'm better off in my real job: I'd have to play at my best for about 20 hours a day, through the night, to get close. And I probably don't play at my best more than about 20% of the time as it is. So for now I'll just be happy to have a cash-positive hobby.

[patty-bush.livejournal.com]

Have you posted any information how what you learned as far as table selection?

Is it just knowing who the bad players are?

How confusing...

[(Anonymous)]

Today I stumbled here and found a thoughtful, insightful, and downright humble poker blog. What's the catch? ;)

Re: How confusing...

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

Only catch I know if is that most of the petty so-called "poker blogging community" doesn't like this journal that much, so don't tell any of them you read it. Except for davebereal, jellymillion and a few others; they seem to like it.

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