Detecting Set Over Set

[shipitfish]

I'm a big believer that NL HE players should sometimes be able to lay down sets in full ring games when set-over-set is a strong possibility. But, having been known for seeing monsters under the bed, I figured I should ask.

NL HE $200-buy-in $1/$2 blinds online: Limped pot with five players including big blind. I have $225, Unknown Player has just joined and bought in for $200 and has the big blind. I limp in cutoff with 4 4.

Flop is K T 4. I lead $5 into $9.80 when it is checked to me., I am check-raised to $25 by the Unknown Player. I make it $50 to go. At the time, I was really thinking about getting away from the hand if he came back over the top. He did, for all his chips, and I eventually called, thinking that I didn't know the player that well and sometimes players go crazy with top two. I figured he'd have raised preflop almost all the time with KK so his range is only KT and TT (most players where I play don't semi-bluff with the nut flush draw, but I guess I could throw specifically A Q to the mix). Also, the average player (which I have to declare him since he just joined) will sometimes raise from the big blind with TT, so that contributes a little bit to the odds he has that in the big blind. The statistics I could compute in the 15 seconds I had (no time bank on this site) seemed to indicate that even if he is twice as less likely to make the play with KT/A Q than he is with TT, I should probably call for roughly 1.5-to-1. Of course, he had TT, or I wouldn't be telling this story.

I can't really take a turn from his check-raise due to the heart draw, so I think the reraise was right most of the time. Maybe I should have reraised more on the flop, in which case it would have been an auto-call due to odds. His over-the-top for all his chips made it possible for me to fold, but I just couldn't do it. Should have I?

My game selection has gotten so good that I basically never get stacked anymore drawing this thin, so I'm hyper-aware when I do and want to be sure I did it right.

Comments

[swolfe.livejournal.com]

as you probably know, i'm a fan of a bigger flop bet. i'd make it $7-$9...probably closer to $9 with as draw heavy as this board is.

after being faced with a significant check-raise, i'm just going to push it in. i don't like the little 3-bet..it's giving too much info for too cheap. as played, a 3-bet push is a bit of an overbet, but your opponent either thinks he has the best hand (and will call) or has a draw to beat you and will call with a bad price (or fold). if you had bet $9 and the check-raise was to $45, then a push makes even more sense.

i wouldn't hate just calling the check-raise and letting him bet again on the turn or playing it cautiously if a scare card comes up. i'm not too worried about draws since not many people check-raise semi-bluff draws, even big draws.

It's probably not worth thinking about

[(Anonymous)]

I don't really see how you can fold this given those pot odds.

I feel like Rory here, but in this case, it doesn't seem worth thinking about. How much EV is there to be squeaked out by this analysis? Using the methodology of "if my opponent had my cards, how much would he lose in this hand," it seems that nearly all opponents would also get stacked. So really, the most EV in set over set scenarios comes out of your starting hand selection where sometimes you choose not to play a low pocket, when your opponent would choose to.

Of course you must adjust that decision to play a small pocket by counting how often your opponent will stack or lose a lot with some non-set hand. It seems the games you play justify playing low pockets, so you just have to accept that sometimes you will flop and underset and happily get stacked. Then, some number of hands later, that same dude will flop an underset to you, and you'll get your money back. 0 EV.

I mean, you're playing these games because random unknowns will stack off with AA or AK vs your set. So how can you be so confident that this isn't one of those situations that justifies the reason you're even in the game?

set over set

[engelke830.livejournal.com]

I don't really have any comments on the thought process of the hand. However, reading through your post, I got the feeling that you knew he had a set of tens and talked yourself into expanding his possible holdings into king ten and ace queen. If you have good instincts, the best advice is to trust them. Sometimes your subconscious picks up on something and you just know you are beat or ahead. So in this case, if you "knew" he had the tens, I advocate making a tough fold. If you really thought king-ten or worse was a strong possibility, then its tough to get away from the set.

[roryk.livejournal.com]

there are too many draws to think about folding a set

if the board was like K74 offsuit then you could think about folding it