Detecting Set Over Set

[shipitfish]

I'm a big believer that NL HE players should sometimes be able to lay down sets in full ring games when set-over-set is a strong possibility. But, having been known for seeing monsters under the bed, I figured I should ask.

NL HE $200-buy-in $1/$2 blinds online: Limped pot with five players including big blind. I have $225, Unknown Player has just joined and bought in for $200 and has the big blind. I limp in cutoff with 4 4.

Flop is K T 4. I lead $5 into $9.80 when it is checked to me., I am check-raised to $25 by the Unknown Player. I make it $50 to go. At the time, I was really thinking about getting away from the hand if he came back over the top. He did, for all his chips, and I eventually called, thinking that I didn't know the player that well and sometimes players go crazy with top two. I figured he'd have raised preflop almost all the time with KK so his range is only KT and TT (most players where I play don't semi-bluff with the nut flush draw, but I guess I could throw specifically A Q to the mix). Also, the average player (which I have to declare him since he just joined) will sometimes raise from the big blind with TT, so that contributes a little bit to the odds he has that in the big blind. The statistics I could compute in the 15 seconds I had (no time bank on this site) seemed to indicate that even if he is twice as less likely to make the play with KT/A Q than he is with TT, I should probably call for roughly 1.5-to-1. Of course, he had TT, or I wouldn't be telling this story.

I can't really take a turn from his check-raise due to the heart draw, so I think the reraise was right most of the time. Maybe I should have reraised more on the flop, in which case it would have been an auto-call due to odds. His over-the-top for all his chips made it possible for me to fold, but I just couldn't do it. Should have I?

My game selection has gotten so good that I basically never get stacked anymore drawing this thin, so I'm hyper-aware when I do and want to be sure I did it right.

Comments

[swolfe.livejournal.com]

as you probably know, i'm a fan of a bigger flop bet. i'd make it $7-$9...probably closer to $9 with as draw heavy as this board is.

after being faced with a significant check-raise, i'm just going to push it in. i don't like the little 3-bet..it's giving too much info for too cheap. as played, a 3-bet push is a bit of an overbet, but your opponent either thinks he has the best hand (and will call) or has a draw to beat you and will call with a bad price (or fold). if you had bet $9 and the check-raise was to $45, then a push makes even more sense.

i wouldn't hate just calling the check-raise and letting him bet again on the turn or playing it cautiously if a scare card comes up. i'm not too worried about draws since not many people check-raise semi-bluff draws, even big draws.

[swolfe.livejournal.com]

oh, also...if you're going to fold to the push, i REALLY hate the 3-bet. that bet is practically inviting your opponent to move in with a big draw.

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I really hate the way I did that three bet. The move in was better. I probably should have done that.

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I'm coming around to use the lead for the pot size more. I'm trying to use both and mix them up (my 3/4 or 1/2 pot leads and your full pot ones) to see how it works.

I'm also playing in loose-passive games and your games tend to be more aggressive. You get the benefit of continuation bets sometimes not getting called, and then your huge hand bets looking just like continuation bets. Your opponents, at least in those 2/5 games, are more sophisticated than the competition I'm up against right now.

That all said, as I started this comment with: I'm trying to move on to those pot sized bets sometimes. :)