Considering Close Situations

[shipitfish]

Usually, people spend the most time talking about hands where the situation is very close. I think this situation is a close one, but I'd appreciate comments if people think I'm overlooking something.

This is in 6 handed $200 maximum buy in $1/$2 NL HE game online. The button is a new player, having just posted his first blind this round. I sat down a few orbits before and I have only a little over $200. The button has $197, and raises to $7 when the action folds to him.

I called $7 in the SB with 9 9, and the big blind folded. The pot stands at $16 with a flop of 2 3 5.

I bet out $9 into $16, figuring for a fold if he has overcards and a raise if he has an overpair. I'm not going all the way with this hand if he raises; I'll give him credit for TT or something and fold. He just calls. I figure he's capable of doing this with just overcards with an ace for a gutshot. He also could be slow-playing a monster, but I didn't get the sense he could have an overpair, because unless it's aces, he can't really let a card come off.

The turn is the 9 and I led $15 into $34. My hope is that now he continues to call if he just has overcards, and perhaps decides to pounce now if he does have aces or some such. Again he just calls.

At this point, I admit to being confused about his holding. He could have flopped a set, which he continues to slowplay. A4 is possibility, but it seems strange he'd slowplay that now with a two flush on board.

The river is the Q. I led $50 into $64. At this point, if he has AQ and has been ripping with overcards and a gutshot, I figure he'll just call. I was a bit surprised when he moved all-in for $116 more. I didn't really think he'd slow-played QQ all the way down, and that was about as likely as a pure bluff with a missed straight draw — probably together they make up 5% of the time at most and cancel each other out. I decide that he either has A4, or one of the flopped sets, and decide to call, getting nearly 1-to-1.5. He actually held the stone cold, 46o.

It seems to me that I just have to get stacked here, and I'm not terribly unhappy about the play. But, I've been running badly enough that I am in that mood of questioning these sorts of situations and wanting to be really sure I didn't screw up.

I thought a bit about betting less on the river, which would have made it much easier to fold to an all-in. But I felt that there were some hands that would pay off that amount, and given that I didn't know anything about the player, he could easily have misplayed aces or a flopped set.

The other post mortem thought I had was to bet much more on the turn, something an overbet of around $40. The problem is, he might still just call with a flopped set, so the overbet doesn't actually tell me whether he has a flopped straight or not.

Did I royally screw up here, and if so, how should have I played it to lose less? Is this really a close situation, or did I just totally miss the obvious?

Comments

[swolfe.livejournal.com]

i haven't read any of the comments, so here's my mostly undiluted opinion:

i'd have reraised PF. everyone open-raises on the button extremely light, especially in short-handed games, and i'd rather reraise as a resteal than take a flop and only really like things when i hit a set.

having just called PF, this is one of those rare situations where i'd probably go for a check-raise on the flop, again mostly as a steal rather than as a hand i want to take to the felt. if called or reraised, i'd probably be done with it unless i turn the 9.

on the turn i'd bet more. if he's calling anything then he'll call 3/4...and unless the river is a 4, i'm willing to stack off.

it's hard to put him on a hand with him just calling down...if i had a big overpair, i'd just call the flop and maybe again on the turn when a TAG player leads into me. put yourself in his position with say, pocket kings...it's a morton's fork situation where you're probably either way ahead or way behind. by raising he's going to push out the hands like 99 and lose more to a hand like 33.

something else, you should try to keep your tone more neutral so that we don't inadvertently give you results oriented advice. sorry you got stacked, did he have A4o? :)

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

Yeah, I am feeling a bit results oriented lately, unfortunately. I've been on a bad run — not as bad as that one you had a few nights ago, but lots of things (read: bad beats) that I try to avoid talking about in the journal.

I did consider A4o after the turn, but I think he still made a mistake not raising the turn. If he had As4s, it might make sense, but even then, he's losing EV by just calling, I think (certainly given my holding).

The consensus on the preflop reraise seems strong. I am still wondering if it is right at 1/2, though, given how often people take flops, even heads up. Do you think the advice differs for 1/2 vs. 2/5?

[roryk.livejournal.com]

it doesnt matter if they take a flop or not. if you just call then you are putting 6 in the pot but basically you only win it if you flop a set or an overpair or something since it is hard for you to call on most flops with 99. if you reraise preflop and then bet 2/3 of the pot on any flop you are putting in 60 or so (25 for the preflop raise, 35 for the flop bet), but you have a good chance of winning right away if your opponent doesnt flop a strong hand. and then sometimes when your opponent does play with you, you flop a set and you stack him. you will never get stacked unless you flop a set.