Considering Close Situations
Tuesday, 9 January 2007 11:50![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
shipitfish
Usually, people spend the most time talking about hands where the situation is very close. I think this situation is a close one, but I'd appreciate comments if people think I'm overlooking something.
This is in 6 handed $200 maximum buy in $1/$2 NL HE game online. The button is a new player, having just posted his first blind this round. I sat down a few orbits before and I have only a little over $200. The button has $197, and raises to $7 when the action folds to him.
I called $7 in the SB with 9
I bet out $9 into $16, figuring for a fold if he has overcards and a raise if he has an overpair. I'm not going all the way with this hand if he raises; I'll give him credit for TT or something and fold. He just calls. I figure he's capable of doing this with just overcards with an ace for a gutshot. He also could be slow-playing a monster, but I didn't get the sense he could have an overpair, because unless it's aces, he can't really let a card come off.
The turn is the 9
At this point, I admit to being confused about his holding. He could have flopped a set, which he continues to slowplay. A4 is possibility, but it seems strange he'd slowplay that now with a two flush on board.
The river is the Q
It seems to me that I just have to get stacked here, and I'm not terribly unhappy about the play. But, I've been running badly enough that I am in that mood of questioning these sorts of situations and wanting to be really sure I didn't screw up.
I thought a bit about betting less on the river, which would have made it much easier to fold to an all-in. But I felt that there were some hands that would pay off that amount, and given that I didn't know anything about the player, he could easily have misplayed aces or a flopped set.
The other post mortem thought I had was to bet much more on the turn, something an overbet of around $40. The problem is, he might still just call with a flopped set, so the overbet doesn't actually tell me whether he has a flopped straight or not.
Did I royally screw up here, and if so, how should have I played it to lose less? Is this really a close situation, or did I just totally miss the obvious?
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no subject
Date: 2007-01-09 18:15 (UTC)I think you played the hand fine, just looks like a simple case of a cold deck to me.
Given that he is brand new to the table and you have no read on this guy really makes it impossible to get away from the hand. At 1/2, I don't think I'm ever folding the river to even a very tight and conservative player. And certainly not to an unknown who could be making this play with AA, KK or even AQ (I've seen worse...) !
One thing, are you always just calling with 99 out of a blind to a steal? I think calling is OK, but I also think putting in a third bet 50% of the time or so is also quite good. By firing first at an Axx flop you can often get a better hand to fold... You are also building a big pot early for when you do flop a monster.
Well anyways, just my 2 cents...
no subject
Date: 2007-01-09 19:29 (UTC)I worked some with reraising from the blinds as part of my arsenal, but I never liked how often I got called. So many people will take a flop with any two cards, even after they were stealing, and then I'm playing a large pot out of position. I tend to stop-and-go it; calling and betting out if the flop doesn't contain too many cards in the play zone.
I appreciate the comment. I tend to avoid the terms cold deck or cooler, because I think people abuse it too often to forgive bad play. I'm glad to hear that others don't think it's a bad play. However, given his holding, if I had reraised from the blind, perhaps I would have just won a small one right there.
no subject
Date: 2007-01-10 20:10 (UTC)playing a hand like KQ should be a hand you dont want to play out of position because it is harder to play. also suited connectors and stuff are harder to play out of position.
no subject
Date: 2007-01-09 19:35 (UTC)I should really get to posting on 2+2. I just can't stand the software so much, that it is so frustrating to post there. I should get over it; perhaps I will, eventually.
The note I took in this spot was . Do you have other suggestions of what to say?
I try to keep my notes very specific. When I see that note, I'll remember this situation exactly, and it will help me to recall him completely. I don't like to make notes that are highly general, because someone might have had a weird day or something. I also find myself making notes like . I try to make sure I can include as much context as possible. This is one of the reasons, too, that I don't massively multitable. I'm usually only playing 2 or 3, 4 at most, so that I can really build good reads on people and take good notes.
no subject
Date: 2007-01-09 19:37 (UTC)In my experience, people don't slow play a flopped two small pair through the turn. I pretty much eliminated those holdings when he just called on the turn.
no subject
Date: 2007-01-09 22:21 (UTC)i'd have reraised PF. everyone open-raises on the button extremely light, especially in short-handed games, and i'd rather reraise as a resteal than take a flop and only really like things when i hit a set.
having just called PF, this is one of those rare situations where i'd probably go for a check-raise on the flop, again mostly as a steal rather than as a hand i want to take to the felt. if called or reraised, i'd probably be done with it unless i turn the 9.
on the turn i'd bet more. if he's calling anything then he'll call 3/4...and unless the river is a 4, i'm willing to stack off.
it's hard to put him on a hand with him just calling down...if i had a big overpair, i'd just call the flop and maybe again on the turn when a TAG player leads into me. put yourself in his position with say, pocket kings...it's a morton's fork situation where you're probably either way ahead or way behind. by raising he's going to push out the hands like 99 and lose more to a hand like 33.
something else, you should try to keep your tone more neutral so that we don't inadvertently give you results oriented advice. sorry you got stacked, did he have A4o? :)
no subject
Date: 2007-01-09 23:07 (UTC)Yeah, I am feeling a bit results oriented lately, unfortunately. I've been on a bad run — not as bad as that one you had a few nights ago, but lots of things (read: bad beats) that I try to avoid talking about in the journal.
I did consider A4o after the turn, but I think he still made a mistake not raising the turn. If he had As4s, it might make sense, but even then, he's losing EV by just calling, I think (certainly given my holding).
The consensus on the preflop reraise seems strong. I am still wondering if it is right at 1/2, though, given how often people take flops, even heads up. Do you think the advice differs for 1/2 vs. 2/5?
no subject
Date: 2007-01-10 20:17 (UTC)Certainly not a fold there
Date: 2007-01-10 04:05 (UTC)Re: Certainly not a fold there
Date: 2007-01-11 20:40 (UTC)Yeah, I'm in one of those times the past two weeks where every time I have someone trapped they hit a 2-6 outer, or I have a monster like this and they have the nuts. I get in these modes where I start to wonder if I'm supposed to be laying down hands left and right. It's good to hear that while I could have played this one better (reraising from the blind, for example), that I didn't make any horrendous mistakes either.
Given the situation, I guess I actually would have liked to be all in on the turn, even if it has more of a rollercoaster kind of feel. At least then, my money goes in with some equity, even if it's bad equity. :) Getting it all in on the river means I have $0 value for ever $1 I put in. If my money's going in regardless, I'd rather at least get $0.20 on the dollar on the turn. :)
definition of close
Date: 2007-01-10 20:07 (UTC)spending a lot of time thinking about close situations is essentially wasting your time
i think you should reraise preflop and try to take it down. make it 24 to go and lead out on any flop for 3/4 of the pot. it is the simplest way to play the hand because you can easily lay down on the flop if you get any action. also you will win right on the flop a lot of the time unless he flops a really big hand. he is open raising on the button so his hand might be very weak and if you just call you have no idea what he has since you didnt do anything to define his hand more.
i'd be happy he moved in on me here on the river. you lost but oh well.
Re: definition of close
Date: 2007-01-11 20:40 (UTC)How you should have played it.
Date: 2007-01-11 19:51 (UTC)Raising the blind seems like a good idea w/ 99, but let's say you just called.
At the flop, you should be deciding whether to be pot committed or not. If you decide to be, check-raise is the move. If you decide not to be (and you probably shouldn't be, on the flop), obviously check-call. Either way, leading sucks, as it usually does on the flop out of position.
if you checked and called on the flop, lead the turn with a bet that gives you a comfortable (slightly less than pot-sized) all-in on the river.
If you checked-raised and got called, you should be in a good position to go all-in on the turn without making an overbet, so do it.
if you checked and he checked behind, obviously bet the turn and keep firing with most-of-pot sized bets.
Once you have top set, don't think about folding. Just think how you can get the most value out of hands like overpairs.
If he had A-4, don't think "how could I have played this hand better against A-4".
Re: How you should have played it.
Date: 2007-01-11 20:27 (UTC)Re: How you should have played it.
Date: 2007-01-11 21:04 (UTC)A good player will raise the blinds from the button like 50% of the time, so you shouldn't give your opponent credit for 2 overs. Of course, if you believe this, you should definitely raise preflop.
If you were the last to raise preflop, then by all means, lead after the flop, since he's overall less likely to fire, and much less likely to fire with no piece.
If you didn't raise preflop, and don't raise on the flop, and he checks behind? Well, too bad. You're giving him another card, but you were willing to give him 3 by just calling preflop.
Also, about amounts, I like raising around 80% of the pot almost always. Could be more on a very "action" flop or less on a very dry flop, but it doesn't really depend on what I have (whether or not I raise of course depends on what I have). Less than half the pot is almost always out of the question except in specific situations, like on a very dry turn, when around 25% of the stacks are already in. Then half-pot (or even a tiny bit less) is of course fine.
Who would wsih to die, my friend?
Date: 2007-01-12 08:31 (UTC)Bye
Re: Who would wsih to die, my friend?
Date: 2007-01-12 16:25 (UTC)Re: Who would wsih to die, my friend?
Date: 2007-01-14 03:02 (UTC)Re: Who would wsih to die, my friend?
Date: 2007-01-14 17:31 (UTC)Re: Who would wsih to die, my friend?
Date: 2007-01-16 02:05 (UTC)Yes!
Date: 2007-02-23 22:36 (UTC)And glamourous design, interesting site name shipitfish.livejournal.com :), I see you you're are not newbe. Don't stop the astonishing job!