An online hand with AA and a turn raise when board pairs

[shipitfish]

In my continuing effort to work on "getting away from strong hands when raised on the turn", this is a hand I had in my notes that I played back on 2005-01-02. I think this is an example of one I can't get away from, but I'm posting it for posterity and to see if others agree.

In an online $5/$10 limit HE game, I picked up AA in the big blind. There are three limpers before me (putting the pot at 4.5 small bets). I decided to raise right there, to build the pot. I would rather win a bigger pot, and punish those who limped with trash. Of course, with my tight image, this gives away that I have a big hand preflop. (That's the typical trade-off for raising with a strong holding in the BB.)

Everyone called the preflop raise, so we saw a flop of 3 Q 5 four-handed, and with 8.5 small bets in the pot.

I bet out on the flop, and a hyperaggressive player named Morron (interesting name, that) raised me. I reraise and he called. Someone in-between us also called, so we saw the turn three handed with about 8.5 big bets in the pot.

I was pretty sure that Morron had a pretty good hand. Even though his aggression was typical, he wasn't usually terribly aggressive with three in the pot -- he saved his most aggressive tendencies for heads-up play. I figure he had KQ or a holding like that. I was pretty convinced it was simply a strong queen he was overplaying a bit. Q5 and Q3 weren't really possibilities, since Morron had reasonable starting hand selection (even though he was hyperaggressive) and he had been in early position preflop.

The turn fell 5, pairing fives. I bet again, and Morron raised, giving the pot 10.5 big bets. The other guy folded. So, I'd have to call two big bets to showdown (because I know it will go check-bet-call on the river). I'm thus offered 1-to-5.25. The question was: are those odds good enough to justify the idea that he didn't flop a set or holds a 5? I decided that they did, so I called, the river came 3, with the expected check-bet-call, and Morron showed A 5.

I wonder, can I get away from that hand? Should I have gotten away? Don't I have to put him on at least trips when the 5 turns? OTOH, he's hyperaggressive, so I should call, I guess. I'm not sweating the call down, but I am trying figure out the right lines of when to get away from raises on the turn in limit HE.

Comments

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[roryk.livejournal.com]

There are too many bets in the pot to really consider folding, in the absence of a strong read. If you try to make big laydowns on the turn to raises, you are going to get absolutely slaughtered online. People online play too loose and bluff and semi-bluff too much, as a rule. This is not the spot where you should be looking for a fold.

Let's put it this way, would you have posted or remembered the hand if he turned over QT? Or 46, and he decided to take a shot at the pot on the turn? Because I think you are going to get shown those hands vs. a hyperaggressive, loose player more than 1 in 5.25 times.

That's what I thought

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

That was my thinking as well. I guess I'm just annoyed with my variance online and as always, questioning whether or not I am making the right decisions. I guess it's a good sign that this was my most marginal call last week. :)

Re: That's what I thought

[(Anonymous)]

Hi Bradley,

I am the player Morron, and I found the hand you described in my Pokertracker database. I like your analysis, and sorry about the unlucky beat. I didn't know until now exactly what you showed down, since Crypto doesn't show all the hands that made it to showdown.

I think you played the hand perfectly. It must have look liked a fishy turn raise given the action up to that point, and the pot was too big for you to fold in that situation. I remember when the turn card hit thinking there was no way he's going to believe I have a 5 in my hand. I even remember raising quickly hoping to fake the "strong means weak" tell to try to make it look even more suspicious.

After you 3-bet me on the flop, I was planning to fold the turn if it wasn't an ace, five or a heart. I now realize an ace on the turn would have really gotten me hurt.

Obviously if I knew what you held I wouldn't have raised the flop. I would have folded. Even though the preflop raise from the BB told me you had a big hand, I didn't feel like I could fold the Q high flop with my pair, overcard and backdoor flush and straight draws in a pot that was pretty big. I figured if you held AK, JJ or TT, I might be able to get you to fold immediately or on the turn, and even if you held KK I had enough pot equity to continue. Of course, AA or QQ had me in really bad shape. It turned out to be AA, so I got really really lucky.

Don't let the bad result change the way you play that hand though. I think you did everything perfectly.

Also, when I first read your post, I was wondering why was I playing A5s from early position, but I see now that it was 7 handed at that time and the utg player that limped before me was a guy that sees 70% of the flops, so I guess that's why I came in.

I have a question for you. If you were me, how would you have played the A5s on that hand (assuming you didn't fold it preflop)?

Thanks and good luck,
Mike

Re: That's what I thought

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

It's really cool that you found my journal. I think it's interesting, since online poker is such a detached thing, for someone I've played online to actually come and find my journal. I presume you found it by googling for your username.

It's also very interesting to me that you are such a thoughtful player. I had you totally pegged wrong; I thought you were a hyperaggressive without warrant, but obviously you are pretty thoughtful player. It's a good lesson for me: don't make snap assessments of players based on only a few observations. I invite you to continue reading and commenting on other parts of my journal.

My criticism is not to say I've never called with a small suited ace from early position, but that I think it was a bad call in that game. There was a good amount of raising there preflop, and I would have felt that limping from early position would likely yield a raise. Even if the guy ahead of you is making some bad plays, you have to worry about a good number of people behind you, even 7-handed.

But, assuming I'd seen the flop and called the raise from the big blind for odds to see if I could outflop, I think I'd fold that holding on the flop. The only hand you're beating that you can possibly put me on is AK suited, given my past play in that game; I do recall I was playing quite tight in that game.

I see why you considered the raise, because it would slow me down if I did only have top pair and you might catch a free river card if I just call and check the turn. However, I think it's difficult to consider the remaining aces your outs, because AQ or AA is such a possibilities. Plus, with most holdings, I am going to three-bet you on the flop, as I did. You realistically have three outs, I think: the remaining fives and the running flush draw (using the "running flush draw is an extra out" rule of thumb.

Also, in this situation, you have a player behind you. I honestly don't remember what kind of player this was -- I vaguely remember him as a calling station. So, in some sense, you might have implied odds to call me in that situation, since you had 1-to-9.5 direct pot odds and the 1-to-10.5 if the guy behind you calls. The problem with the raise is that it reopens the betting and allows me to three-bet. The calling play seems a bit weak, but given that it might induce a call behind you (while he did call two bets cold, you can't be sure he would).

I now actually don't think I played the hand perfectly. I think that given your aggression that particular day, I might have gotten a bet from you on the flop, and I could have check-raised. We might have gotten a cap on the flop. Of course, the 5 would still have devastated me, but I would have gotten more bets in when I was winning.