Bob Answers Regarding That Situation

[shipitfish]

Below is my exchange with Bob Ciaffone about the A Q monster draw hand from a few weeks back. Most of the commentors suggested I should have played differently. Bob's first comment was:

I often fold A-Q offsuit to a single raise, but seldom fold A-Q suited, especially having position. I call if I do not know the player, or if he is not a rock.

On the flop, when he bets, I like your raise. He could have zero (but the best hand with AK). I do not let an opponent with such a hand charge me to draw when I have a hand that I am willing to back with all my money. Plus I do not know what an overcard will do for me, or which one to hit.

You ran into a good hand, yet were still about even money to win. Just have a little more karma next time...

I replied:

As for folding preflop, you mention you would fold AQs if he was a rock. His starting hand selections may have been close to “rockish” (he would have only AJ-AK or a middle pair or better), but he would make some big mistakes on the flop with one pair. Does that justify?

I think you are saying you approve backing the hand with my whole stack, but even if I am pretty sure I have no fold equity against an overpair (as I was in this case)?

I am confused by your distinction between someone “charging to draw”, and “backing the hand with all the money”. Would this summarize your position: “His hand might just be a little better or worse than mine given my monster draw, and I don't want to see a turn with money left.”?

Some of my friends who are pretty good players argued that I should take a turn cheaply and see if I hit. I disagreed, because I think I'm a favorite enough of a time that I want to get it all in, since I know he'll put it in with any overpair.

Are there times when I want to play that hand a little bit more conservatively? I didn't think there were, but some argued I should so I wanted to ask you — would you ever play more conservatively there given the situation and my read that he'd overplay any overpair?

Bob responded to that with:

A-J is not “rockish” so you can call with A-Q suited. I do approve of your backing your hand with your whole stack. The problem with calling is you may have to face a big bet with only one card to come, where you are not so eager to play. Plus he will pull up if the flush comes. Plus you do not know if an ace wins or if a queen wins (you know one of them is a winner, if not against aces, but which one?).

The clearest way to state my position is he may make money off me on a hand that cannot call a raise if I do not put down some heat.

I do not play this type of hand conservatively when heads-up against a preflop raiser.

So, I appreciate all of your opinions and thoughts. I've decided to declare that I played this hand correctly. I don't think that I love this situation anymore — I know that I love this situation.

Comments

Not to second guess BC...

[salvelinus.livejournal.com]

but how much online $1/2 NL do you think he plays? Really? My argument was that if you want to make money consistantly playing this game (low limit NL online), it pays to not be a "fancy player" - jamming the pot against a unknown player where you're 51% to win. Get your money in when you're a real favourite. Try this play every time you have the opportunity and see how long your online BR lasts. I still think that this kind of play is more suitable for certain mid to late tournament situations and higher stakes cash games ($2/5 and $5/10 NL).
Then again, I'm not a pro.

Re: Not to second guess BC...

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

I think Bob's point is that enough of the time (note I double-pointed-out that dude goes all-in with every overpair), I'm a bigger favorite, and sometimes dude has AK. I think he's right, and I think I want these spots. I want all the spots where I'm a favorite, not just those where I am a huge favorite.

Bob Ciaffone?

[(Anonymous)]

Who exactly is this Bob Ciaffone? I have followed this blog many times and have been impressed by your thought process. Clearly the hand in question A-Qs is very interesting in and of itself but the flop of 5-2-3 with 2 diamonds makes it all the more interesting. Before I comment on the hand let me first comment on Bob Ciaffone, I have never heard of the guy, but I can tell you his commentary was poor and unhelpful. His general non-specific answers are the sign of a weak player and a weak mind. Enough with that. Lets analyse the hand:

Under the gun raises to $9 in a $1/$2 no limit. You stated that he is tight aggressive and overplays overpairs. My first comment: Knowing this A-Qs must be played very carefully, A queen or an Ace coming on the flop could get you in trouble, this we already know. Calling the $9 makes total sense with so much action behind you. $9 is not much of a commitment if someone behind you makes a re-reraise. If everyone else folds, you are heads up in position with someone who will most likely lead out on the flop out of position.

OK:

Flop comes 5,2,3 two diamonds. He bets $15. Here is where our opinions differ. He leads out and bets $15. You know darn well it is very likely he has an overpair so why are you increasing the size of the pot against someone you know is not going away with an overpair. Are you a coin flip against pocket 10's, j's,q's,k's. Are you telling me you want to get your money in with no fold equity against a coin flip? This makes no sense to me.

No this guy needs special handling. When he bets $15 you call you do not raise. If you raise and he indeed has an overpair, you know he is going to come back over the top of you. The only time you raise his bet is if you have trips in this situation or flop a straight. If you flopped trips then you raise where against someone else you might slowplay knowing he cannot get away from his hand.

When he bets $15 and you call, you have kept the pot small enough to get away from the hand. But you still have a chance of burying him if you make your hand on the turn or the river because the odds of getting paid off are still high. A blank comes on the turn, he bets heavy and you are gone, he bets moderate you have a decision but can still get away from the hand.

But instead you re-raise to $40, enticing him to juice the pot even more in a hand he is clearly not folding.You know he is not going to fold when he reraises to $100 , so what does pushing all in do? What is your fold equity? ZERO. So in the best case you have gotten all your chips in the middle on a draw with a 50% chance of winning? This turkey will just as easily call your all in when you have trips or a made hand so why put yourself in this situation on a draw? Believe me I am not making this situation trivial, counting all those outs puts you in a trance but the simple math says at best in most times you are in a coinflip.

Against a guy like this I would much rather have 6-7 suited, 10-8, 2-4, 6-6 or any other 2 cards than A-Q. I would religiously fold his continuation bets time after time untill I finally hit a big hand on him. Calling $9 with 10-8 offsuit in a flop if 9-7-6 and he starts swinging for the fences when you only risked $9 in the pot pre-flop to win $500 eventually is a pretty good deal. Usually people who go crazy with their overpairs are concentrating on their cards not yours. You fold to him 7 times and lose $63, do you think he realizes this the 8th time you raise his continuation bet? Nope. He bets his standard $15, you make it $40 just to antagonize him he goes over the top making it a hundred you push all in, he can't fold at that point, and his odds are very low against a straight or trips.

Thats how I want to see you play a guy you have such a good read on! Narrow thinking = narrow play. You have to get his chips when you flop the best hand!

Re: Bob Ciaffone?

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

Bob Ciaffone is the author of the best book on big bet poker available. That doesn't make him a god, but he knows his stuff. His answers are very dense; I had to read them a few times to get what he was saying. But, there's an important point that goes directly to what you end with: You have to get his chips when you flop the best hand!

If you go back to the original post, you see that I have the best hand. I'm a slight favorite, but a favorite nonetheless. Bob's most important point: almost all of the time, a mere ace or queen is good but I don't know which one. You get the money in as a favorite almost all the time, even without fold equity.

Like I said to someone else: yes, I want to get my money is a huge favorite too. But, I want to get my money in as a baby favorite. As long as I am favorite — that's all that matters.

Re: Bob Ciaffone?

[brettbrettbrett.livejournal.com]

His general non-specific answers are the sign of a weak player and a weak mind

This is ludicrous.

I don't necessarily disagree with your analysis past this, but the whole hand comes down to the liklihood of this guy's folding. And Bradley having AQs isn't an issue at all. The fact that he is a slight favorite against this guys range only exists because he does have an overcard. Sure it makes sense to wait til your egdes are bigger against guys like this. But to say you should never gamble with them seems a bit myopic to me. If this were a regular game, or someone Bradley will log lots of hours with online, then he basically has to play this hand the way he did. Although I think he should make his flop raise bigger.