Who exactly is this Bob Ciaffone? I have followed this blog many times and have been impressed by your thought process. Clearly the hand in question A-Qs is very interesting in and of itself but the flop of 5-2-3 with 2 diamonds makes it all the more interesting. Before I comment on the hand let me first comment on Bob Ciaffone, I have never heard of the guy, but I can tell you his commentary was poor and unhelpful. His general non-specific answers are the sign of a weak player and a weak mind. Enough with that. Lets analyse the hand:
Under the gun raises to $9 in a $1/$2 no limit. You stated that he is tight aggressive and overplays overpairs. My first comment: Knowing this A-Qs must be played very carefully, A queen or an Ace coming on the flop could get you in trouble, this we already know. Calling the $9 makes total sense with so much action behind you. $9 is not much of a commitment if someone behind you makes a re-reraise. If everyone else folds, you are heads up in position with someone who will most likely lead out on the flop out of position.
OK:
Flop comes 5,2,3 two diamonds. He bets $15. Here is where our opinions differ. He leads out and bets $15. You know darn well it is very likely he has an overpair so why are you increasing the size of the pot against someone you know is not going away with an overpair. Are you a coin flip against pocket 10's, j's,q's,k's. Are you telling me you want to get your money in with no fold equity against a coin flip? This makes no sense to me.
No this guy needs special handling. When he bets $15 you call you do not raise. If you raise and he indeed has an overpair, you know he is going to come back over the top of you. The only time you raise his bet is if you have trips in this situation or flop a straight. If you flopped trips then you raise where against someone else you might slowplay knowing he cannot get away from his hand.
When he bets $15 and you call, you have kept the pot small enough to get away from the hand. But you still have a chance of burying him if you make your hand on the turn or the river because the odds of getting paid off are still high. A blank comes on the turn, he bets heavy and you are gone, he bets moderate you have a decision but can still get away from the hand.
But instead you re-raise to $40, enticing him to juice the pot even more in a hand he is clearly not folding.You know he is not going to fold when he reraises to $100 , so what does pushing all in do? What is your fold equity? ZERO. So in the best case you have gotten all your chips in the middle on a draw with a 50% chance of winning? This turkey will just as easily call your all in when you have trips or a made hand so why put yourself in this situation on a draw? Believe me I am not making this situation trivial, counting all those outs puts you in a trance but the simple math says at best in most times you are in a coinflip.
Against a guy like this I would much rather have 6-7 suited, 10-8, 2-4, 6-6 or any other 2 cards than A-Q. I would religiously fold his continuation bets time after time untill I finally hit a big hand on him. Calling $9 with 10-8 offsuit in a flop if 9-7-6 and he starts swinging for the fences when you only risked $9 in the pot pre-flop to win $500 eventually is a pretty good deal. Usually people who go crazy with their overpairs are concentrating on their cards not yours. You fold to him 7 times and lose $63, do you think he realizes this the 8th time you raise his continuation bet? Nope. He bets his standard $15, you make it $40 just to antagonize him he goes over the top making it a hundred you push all in, he can't fold at that point, and his odds are very low against a straight or trips.
Thats how I want to see you play a guy you have such a good read on! Narrow thinking = narrow play. You have to get his chips when you flop the best hand!
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Bob Ciaffone?
Date: 2006-04-09 01:36 (UTC)Under the gun raises to $9 in a $1/$2 no limit. You stated that he is tight aggressive and overplays overpairs. My first comment: Knowing this A-Qs must be played very carefully, A queen or an Ace coming on the flop could get you in trouble, this we already know. Calling the $9 makes total sense with so much action behind you. $9 is not much of a commitment if someone behind you makes a re-reraise. If everyone else folds, you are heads up in position with someone who will most likely lead out on the flop out of position.
OK:
Flop comes 5,2,3 two diamonds. He bets $15. Here is where our opinions differ. He leads out and bets $15. You know darn well it is very likely he has an overpair so why are you increasing the size of the pot against someone you know is not going away with an overpair. Are you a coin flip against pocket 10's, j's,q's,k's. Are you telling me you want to get your money in with no fold equity against a coin flip? This makes no sense to me.
No this guy needs special handling. When he bets $15 you call you do not raise. If you raise and he indeed has an overpair, you know he is going to come back over the top of you. The only time you raise his bet is if you have trips in this situation or flop a straight. If you flopped trips then you raise where against someone else you might slowplay knowing he cannot get away from his hand.
When he bets $15 and you call, you have kept the pot small enough to get away from the hand. But you still have a chance of burying him if you make your hand on the turn or the river because the odds of getting paid off are still high. A blank comes on the turn, he bets heavy and you are gone, he bets moderate you have a decision but can still get away from the hand.
But instead you re-raise to $40, enticing him to juice the pot even more in a hand he is clearly not folding.You know he is not going to fold when he reraises to $100 , so what does pushing all in do? What is your fold equity? ZERO. So in the best case you have gotten all your chips in the middle on a draw with a 50% chance of winning? This turkey will just as easily call your all in when you have trips or a made hand so why put yourself in this situation on a draw? Believe me I am not making this situation trivial, counting all those outs puts you in a trance but the simple math says at best in most times you are in a coinflip.
Against a guy like this I would much rather have 6-7 suited, 10-8, 2-4, 6-6 or any other 2 cards than A-Q. I would religiously fold his continuation bets time after time untill I finally hit a big hand on him. Calling $9 with 10-8 offsuit in a flop if 9-7-6 and he starts swinging for the fences when you only risked $9 in the pot pre-flop to win $500 eventually is a pretty good deal. Usually people who go crazy with their overpairs are concentrating on their cards not yours. You fold to him 7 times and lose $63, do you think he realizes this the 8th time you raise his continuation bet? Nope. He bets his standard $15, you make it $40 just to antagonize him he goes over the top making it a hundred you push all in, he can't fold at that point, and his odds are very low against a straight or trips.
Thats how I want to see you play a guy you have such a good read on! Narrow thinking = narrow play. You have to get his chips when you flop the best hand!