An Online Hand I'm Wondering About

[shipitfish]

So, I figured the great run at Pacific wouldn't last. Of course, I'm still up a couple of hundred for the week, but with the larger bankroll I'd built, I spent $600 taking a shot at the $10/$20, and lost the whole $600. Of course, the reason I took the shot was precisely because the game was loose and crazy, which led to some crazy variance. One example was getting tons of bets in with top set, and the guy who saw the river with me had flopped a runner-runner straight and flush draw, and caught the running flush, which I paid off a raise on because I didn't imagine he'd be drawing to that for so many bets. Lots of hands like that, where I just couldn't see the bad beat coming.

However, one hand where I wonder if I could have gotten off a huge holding was when J J in middle/late position. I three-bet an early position raiser, and the small blind (SB) capped it. The MP called the cap cold. I believed, that as a reasonably tight player, that he must hold AA, KK, or AKs to call a cap cold. However, the SB was a loose aggressive player who would cap with just about any pair above 77, AK, and AQ, and maybe even something as bad as KQ.

The flop came down as Q J 9. The SB checked, and the MP bet out. I raised with middle set, and the SB check-raised to a three bet. The MP called, and I called.

My feeling was that if the SB held AQ, 99, or AQ, he would have bet out. The check raise indicated KT (a holding with which I couldn't see even him capping), or (more likely) QQ, which he'd check-raise with now because of the straight draw possibilities. I was quite sure the MP held AA, KK, or AK. I was done with the hand if a T came, but was really worried that I was drawing to only one out.

The turn came a blank. I now looked at this next decision as one to complete the hand. I decided that if the MP was going to call down, so was I. I wasn't going to pay any raises on the turn or river, because raising would mean that a made straight or QQ was definitely out, and maybe both. If the board paired, I was still just calling, because the MP wouldn't raise if he only held AA, KK, or AK, and if the SB had a set, as I suspected, only the case Jack would do me any good, and I'd be forced to pay off too many raises if he was full, too.

Thus, it was a $40 decision (to call on turn and river) into what will be (by implied odds without raises) a $170 pot, which is a 1-to-4.25 decision. I had a strong feeling I am in third place. I didn't honestly know if my read certainty was 1-to-5 or better. How could I tell? Should I obey the limit rule to "pay off with big hands"? I still don't know, but I paid it off. My read was right: the SB had that QQ, and the MP, who called the river bet too, mucked. I am sure, by the river, that he had held AA, because I didn't think he'd pay off with KK and he did call the last bet, which meant it wasn't AK.

Did I do the right thing here? I can't tell. Maybe I shouldn't have called the preflop cap, assuming one of them had QQ, KK, or AA (yet, I had odds to flop a set)? Should I have only continued with top set, not middle set? I did have a correct read that I was pretty confident with, but did it beat the implied pot odds I was offered?

Anyway, most of the hands I played in the two hour $10/$20 session were something like that, although most weren't as dramatic. I missed draws I had odds for, had big pairs cracked by crazy draws, and I lost the whole $600 buy-in, unfortunately. Loose games are a blessing and curse.

So, I'm off to Greg's game tonight. Looking forward to seeing nick_marden and the rest of the crew.

Comments

Action

[roryk.livejournal.com]

You lost less than I would have with this hand. I would have at least capped the flop-- I might have raised the turn if lead into again, dunno though. Probably not-- SB has to put me on a set, but who knows.

Laying it down is just miserable. Set over set you just lose a lot of money, not much you can do about it.

You should definitely call the cap preflop.

Re: Action

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

I appreciate the feedback as always, Rory. I am glad someone took a look at this entry, as this hand is one like many I hit during my bad run at $10/$20. The others weren't set over set, but similar in the sense that I had a strong feeling I was beat but had a very strong holding and ended up paying off in pots that weren't raised after the flop.

I have been taking notes on more hands I lose to try and see if there are leaks in my game I'm not seeing or if it's just a bad luck run that's knocked me down again.