I Should Be Able To Make This Lay Down

[shipitfish]

Most of my readers will probably think I am insane for considering this laydown in this situation. I think, however, that I misplayed this hand. I also have somewhat of a moral obligation to post this, as nick_marden once lost a big pot with a very similar situation and I told him what I am telling myself at the end of this post.

I was playing $1/$2 NL HE, $200 max online at Full Tilt Poker. Historically, these games are the types of tight weak games I've written about so often. However, lately, they have been more loose-passive.

I was at a six player table, and a few people had busted. We were dealt a hand with three people suddenly after two people left simultaneously (one busted and one left on his own). I was in the BB with J J. The button, Quyzzie, raised to $7, which was a standard preflop raise. I hadn't been at the table but for a dozen hands, but Quyzzie was playing pretty loose from what I saw, but not with his preflop raises. His vice seemed to be bad one-pair hands on the flop.

The largest stack at the table, who seemed to be a strong player (named Mikechike) made it $20 to go from the SB. I gave Mikechike credit for a big hand here. I figured he had a pair between TT-AA, AK, or AQ.

I had a tough decision. I felt that it was a tough laydown to make three-handed, and a reraise from Quyzzie meant I had to fold preflop. I had $252 behind, Mikechike had me covered ($258), and Quyzzie had only $87. I decided to call the $18 cold, and be done with the hand if Quyzzie reraised or if I missed the set. Quyzzie just called.

The flop came J 5 A. Mikechike paused for a moment and bet $18 into the $60 pot. I actually considered a set of aces as a possible hand. AK was the other very likely possibility, making his bet hoping that someone with a weaker ace would raise . But, I was realistically worried about AA (for all the good it did me).

I decided to set Quyzzie all-in. This way I could look to Mikechike like I wanted to be heads up with Quyzzie, and force him to a decision knowing one player would be all-in. (I expected Quyzzie to call with any Ace, and it seemed somewhat likely he had one — my feeling about his preflop raise was Ace-high.) I made it $67 to go. Quyzzie insta-called (yes, I usually try to avoid that cutesie online poker term.). I really felt he would have thought some about putting his stack at risk with KK or a flush draw, so I was pretty confident he had an Ace. Mikechike called somewhat quickly behind him.

I thought Mikechike might have a flush draw here, but I realized after the hand I couldn't put him on this. The only one that made sense is K Q, and it would have been pretty odd preflop behavior for that holding. In a sense, I think I have to put him on exactly AA at that point, because he'd take the opportunity to protect AK. (Remember, my only read on him is that he's a pretty good, reasonable player.)

Therefore, when the turn falls T, Mikechike checks, and and the pot stands at $261, I think I can check instead of betting my last $166 (which is what I did). Of course, Mikechike "insta-called" in his own right. Mikechike had the only hand that made sense — A A. (For the curious, Quyzzie had A Q — overplaying one pair again. Again, for all the good it did me, my read on Quyzzie was right.)

If I instead check the turn, and that 7 that came on the river arrives, Mikechike likely puts in a value bet. I may have to call up to $100 there, but I might be able to fold for all-in. Indeed, AK seems even less likely when he just checked the turn. Meanwhile, if I check the turn, and the flush doesn't come, how much if any should I call when he value bets top set?

Finally, is this all just a stupid marginal discussion? Should I have made the "more obvious" right play of folding preflop, even though we were three-handed?

I have to admit Mikechike played it as I would have — trying to sell it as a flush draw to two obviously made hands that can't have anything but runner-runner flush outs, and therefore they are left drawing dead on the turn. Even if Quyzzie does have the flush draw, Mikechike can safely check the turn, because I conveniently already charged Quyzzie the maximum to see the river. But, I should have seen past it because no flush draws coincide with the preflop action.

I think I should be ashamed of myself. If it's the 5 J A instead of the A 5 J , maybe the flush draw with an AK becomes more likely and I have to just take the beat. But the board the way it was, I should have walked away $166 richer than I did.

Anyway, all I have left to say to myself (on Mikechike's behalf) on this hand is: Ship It, Fish!

Comments

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

Thanks for your comments. However, you artfully avoided the other question: should I have tossed JJ preflop when a player I know little about except "seems pretty good" reraises?

[roryk.livejournal.com]

I don't think so. A noob raised on the button and had been raising loose. A good player reraised from the SB. Why does the good player have to have a huge hand? The good player knows the noob could have a wide range of hands, why does his reraise need to immediately mean TT-AA, AK or AQ or AJ or AT or KQ or KJ? Why not 77 or 88 or 99? The button has been raising a lot of hands and could just be trying to win the blinds. The SB is good and knows that so his reraising range could be much wider than normal. You know the good SB knows the buttons range could be wide so you know the SBs range is wider than normal so your range of playing against the SBs range should be wider than normal so I would happily call with JJ there and I would also think that JJ was probably the best hand going to the flop too. Too bad you ran into AA this time and flopped the second set. I think most of the time you stack the SBs more-likely AK or AQ or top two and ship his stack to you immediately.

[roryk.livejournal.com]

There should be a why not in there somewhere after TT-AA, AK or AQ.