The Other $300 in Boston: PLO/8 Hand

[shipitfish]

As I discussed in my first post about the PL mixed game at the club in Boston, I was already down a full buy-in ($300) to Josh. Although I wasn't as sure then as I am now (after discussing the PL stud hand with all of you), I did have a strong feeling that I had played well against Josh in the PL stud hand. I felt I was basically somewhat of a favorite to the game, or at least able to break even and get some experience with PL mixed games. I decided to buy-in again for another $300.

About half an hour later, another big hand came up during the PLO/8 round. Again, the tight player (who folded on fourth street in the stud hand) raised the pot ($8) from the small blind. Josh had limped ahead of me, and I had limped on the button with the A 4 8 6. Josh called quickly, and I was now offered about 1-to-3 and a chance to play a really big pot. I felt it was an easy call even if my low draw was marginal. I stopped to think for a moment about the likely hands my opponents held. The tight player had mentioned he knew a good deal about limit O/8, so my feeling was that he had a typical SB raising hand for that game. He wasn't a terribly tricky player, so I was quite sure he held A-2 with a suited ace. I don't usually like to make the mistake of putting someone on a hand early. However, I decided that there was no doubt, given how tight and straightforward he was, that "A-2, with the ace suited to something " was part of his holding.

Josh's holding started as a mystery. My feeling, given the limp and quick call, was that he probably had big cards. I knew he'd likely overvalue big cards, because he'd mentioned being a bit uncomfortable with high/low games. I left my read at merely that preflop and decided to see what developed.

The flop fell 5 7 Q, and I saw the tight player quickly bet out $20. Based on his movement and the quickness of his bet, I felt this was a continuation bet, and that it should be given limited weight. Josh, who had quickly glanced at his chips as the flop came (classic Caro tell), asked: How much can I raise?. The pot was counted at $44, meaning he could make it $84 to go. He immediately did that once given the count.

I sunk into the tank. I first looked carefully at the tight player. He was visibly frustrated, and I got more certain of my A-2 read — maybe A-A-2 (which better explains the flop bet). I also felt he didn't have a hand that he could commit all of his chips; he knew even with A-A he'd have to fold here in O/8.

However, on further thought, it was clear that I couldn't just call. While I thought it was highly unlikely he'd call with just an overpair and a low draw, the odds he'd call clearly went up if I didn't raise. So, I was down to raise or fold.

I looked back at my hand and counted high outs. Wrap-around straight draws have always been a mental block for me, and I had to think and count clearly. I took a breath and started at the bottom of the deck: 2's do nothing (for the high). Four treys are good. What about 4's? Yes, three of those left. 5's pair the board. 6's — yes, straight to the six, four more. I'm up to eleven (In my head: These draws go to eleven — Stop thinking of Spinal Tap/poker crossover jokes, I'm in a hand here.). Ok, I left off at 7's. No good, paired board. 8's? Yes, one in my hand, three left, making 15 outs. 9's are good too, and four of those should be live. Tens and up are useless. I was at 19 outs. Ok. That means I'm in good shape for the high, as long as someone doesn't have a better wrap.

A full minute had passed, and I couldn't take but another minute here. I recapped: I'd decided that the tight player would fold if I raised, so now I've got to put Josh on a hand. I know the tight player is going to toss A-2 into the muck. However, if Josh has both a made high, and is drawing better than me at a low, I'm in really tough shape; I need the equity of a certain low if my low outs come. Meanwhile, it seemed pretty obvious that Josh had flopped a set. Given my preflop read, I figured it was top set, but 7-7 was also possible. I was getting nervous for taking so much time, and couldn't crunch numbers fast enough. However, I was certain that if he had the obvious set with a reasonable low draw, I was truly dead.

I started thinking back on my preflop read. I really felt like Josh was on all big cards. He didn't know much about O/8, but he clearly knew he had to charge draws. The heavy aggression, given there wasn't a flush draw on board (which, BTW, was another reason I was sure the tight player would fold even a suited A-2), likely indicated that Josh was protecting since he had no low draw. This meant that I was probably free-rolling against him for the low. Although if the turn came with money behind, and the board paired, I'd have to fold!

I finally looked back at my stack and reminded myself of the pot size. There was about $128 out there, the bet was $88 to me, and I had about $280 in front of me. I couldn't even raise the full size of the pot; I could therefore go all-in. That cinched it. I could see the rest of the board, most likely free-rolling to the low, and lots of outs to a high as long as the board didn't pair. I looked at my hand one last time. (I wanted now to make a lame attempt at representing showboating a monster, because I was sure even if I was in good shape, I'd prefer Josh to fold 7-7, if that was possible at all, in case he had that and a low draw. I knew he wouldn't fold Q-Q for anything, and that it was probably wishful thinking that he'd fold any set, regardless of low potential.) I said: Ok, sorry for taking so long. Raise — Pot!, and I put the spare $80 (or so) on top two pillar stacks of $200 and pushed them forward.

The tight player shook his head and made an annoyed noise; his hand hit the muck before I could even look up. The dealer grabbed the stacks and started computing the actual raise, but Josh said, Call!, before anyone else moved. I started to shake — he clearly had the set, but did he have a low draw, too?

Oh, beautiful preflop read! Josh tossed up a a fistful of paint — K Q K Q. I turned over my hand and he looked at me like I was insane (surely he doesn't understand O/8, I thought). The turn was the J — my heart collapsed. My head nearly hit the table when I saw the final board of 5 7 Q J J. The word "scoop" rattled around in my head as the floor man to my right explained to the newbie dealer that it was indeed a scoop and Josh got the whole thing.

I bought in again. But, I was in town for a conference, not poker, and I couldn't stay that late. I lost another $20 in some small pots, and cashed out and left. I had to get nick_marden on the phone (now later than 01:00 in the morning on a Sunday) to figure out if I did the right thing in this and the stud hand.

We looked at the numbers. Man, was I in good shape:

$ pokenum -o8 qh qs ks kd - Ac 4c 8s 6h -- 5s 7h Qd / Ad 2s

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 741 enumerated boards containing 5s Qd 7h
cards         scoop     HIwin   HIlos   HItie     LOwin   LOlos   LOtie      EV
Ks Qs Kd Qh     172       389     352       0         0       0       0   0.379
8s Ac 4c 6h     352       352     389       0       531       0       0   0.621

(Note: I guessed on the suits of that the tight player threw away.)

Look at that EV! I was fine, really. As it turned out, the tight player said he'd actually folded A-A-2-3 single-suited, which means it was a little bit worse for me, because I needed 3's for the straight and would have liked them all live for my low draw. (OTOH, having the extra Ace dead helped.) The upshot was it took only a tiny bit of my EV away:

$ pokenum -o8 qh qs ks kd - Ac 4c 8s 6h -- 5s 7h Qd / Ad 2s 3h As

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 666 enumerated boards containing 5s Qd 7h
cards         scoop     HIwin   HIlos   HItie     LOwin   LOlos   LOtie      EV
Ks Qs Kd Qh     172       354     312       0         0       0       0   0.395
8s Ac 4c 6h     312       312     354       0       456       0       0   0.605
    

Between the stud hand and this one, I got a lot of money (over $600) in as a big favorite. As nick_marden noted, you can buy a boat with all the Sklansky dollars you earned. (I guess, if boats cost only $1,400.) Of course, it's not clear if I'd have played this O/8 hand the same way if I hadn't been able to go all-in on the flop. Seeing a turn with $400 behind, for example, might have been quite tricky. So, while I am no fan of playing short-stacked in NL HE, perhaps there is something to be said for it in PLO/8.

As a final note, you might wonder why, after I finished my outs-count, I was so worried about getting my money in this situation, even when I knew the tight player would fold. The reason is this: if Josh has a good low draw and a set, I'm in tough shape. Consider:

$ pokenum -o8 qh qs ah 3d - Ac 4c 8s 6h -- 5s 7h Qd / Ad 2s 3h

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 703 enumerated boards containing 5s Qd 7h
cards         scoop     HIwin   HIlos   HItie     LOwin   LOlos   LOtie      EV
Qs 3d Ah Qh     352       389     314       0       348      30       0   0.672
8s Ac 4c 6h     110       314     389       0       102     348       0   0.328

Now, he really does need to have a better low draw than mine to have me bad. If he has a low draw but it's weaker, we're about even money. E.g.:

$ pokenum -o8 qh qs 3s 4d - Ac 4c 8s 6h -- 5s 7h Qd / Ad 2s 3h

Omaha Hi/Low 8-or-better: 703 enumerated boards containing 5s Qd 7h
cards         scoop     HIwin   HIlos   HItie     LOwin   LOlos   LOtie      EV
Qs 3s 4d Qh     256       403     300       0        69     283       0   0.484
8s Ac 4c 6h     279       300     403       0       381      69       0   0.516

One might argue that since I know one of the aces and one of the deuces are dead in our tight friend's hand, that I can be much more confident — that I'm seeing monsters under the bed to worry Josh has top set and a good low draw. However, if Josh were an experienced O/8 player, I might very well have to put him on that hand, and assume his big raise was to push out the obvious A-2. I think that only my read that he likely would overplay big cards can entice me to put in all the money.

Anyway, so much for my foray into PL mixed games. I'm down about $1,000 overall playing such situations (that is, between Ashley Adams' games in Boston and this one — I actually won about €150 in Paris at the Aviation Club). Of course, I'd be up lots if my Sklansky dollars were fungible. If I could get some more practice, somewhere, playing mixed game big-bet poker, I might be a force in such games! Hey, what's the deal all these overspecialized players in the USA, anyway?!?

Comments

[(Anonymous)]

Fold preflop.

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

You are the second person to mention this. The game was five handed, and if I know that the SB has A-2, is it that easy to be trapped? Should I fold on the button when it is limped to me, or should I have just folded to the SB raise?