Friday, 29 April 2005

Confused

Friday, 29 April 2005 01:36
shipitfish: (Default)

I am so confused by poker at this point, I wonder if it is even possible to have a mathematical certainty to win -- even over the long haul. I'm playing at the lowest limits, at 1/2, 2/4, and some 3/6 on Party Poker. I have lost every single night for the five nights I've played; a full $300! At one point, I actually got good starting hands for five hands in a row, flopped the best hand, value bet all the way, and was rivered by three outers every time (in one pot, a guy capped on the flop, turn and river with me when he was drawing to six outs. And he hit). But, the details of the beats don't matter. The sheer volume in a compressed time span is the only curious part. The volume just amazes me.

This game cannot be won without luck. And, frankly, I believe the bankroll levels that you actually need to ride out unlucky years are substantially greater than suggested in any literature. 300 big bets is surely not enough for Limit HE.

I frankly have a hard time understanding the players whom I've met who say they have never had a extended bad run. Save one lucky night at Greg's game in Boston in February, I have not had serious wins this entire calendar year. My game has not radically changed. I avoid playing with "scared money" by dropping down limits. I am playing tight-aggressive poker. I reread chapters in poker books every night. I keep logs.

In fact, when I am losing like this, I look constantly over and over again at my play, much more carefully than I am winning. Indeed, I think my biggest EV losses come when I'm winning a lot. I get careless, feeling invincible, and I play looser than I should.

When I am this deep into losses, I find myself looking at single bets, convincing myself somehow that saving one big bet here or there would have made the difference. But, then I realized that tiny edge of skill can't make a real difference. Luck always makes the real difference. I'd have to find a dozen situations where I could save one bet before I can make up for one lucky 2-outer that someone caught on the river.

Anyway, instead of asking you to listen to more of my bad run rantings, I'd like to hear two things from my readers that would be a big help to me:

  • What's the worst run of BBs in limit you've ever had in a row, how long was it, and how long before your bankroll recovered?
  • Where online are the best limit games at the lower end right now (I'd like to optimize game selection to the maximum if I can)?

I'd appreciate your help.

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