Systematic Misplaying of AK in NL HE Cash Games, Part 1

[shipitfish]

Ask a group of NL HE players to list their favorite starting hands. You'll hear AA, KK, QQ, and, after those, the group will almost surely begin to argue whether JJ or AK is the fourth best hand. If they do pick JJ as the fourth, they'll surely make AK the fifth. Some will prefer AKs over QQ.

But, as poker players always do, they'll also bemoan their terrible fate with the hand being discussed. You might even hear an annoying sexist joke (of which I'll repeat only the punch line) common in the poker world this season: AK "looks good but never wins". I think that's an exaggeration, to be sure, but some at the table agree wholeheartedly. Yet, I haven't seen this quip actually inspire changes in how AK is typically played by those NL HE players. Maybe in this series of posts about misplaying AK, I can suggest some changes if you're someone who feels this way about AK.

Before we begin to consider new ways to play AK in NL HE, we should first consider the historical reasons why AK is considered a strong starting hand in NL HE. In the earliest reference book of poker, Super System, Brunson states "I'd rather have A-K than either a pair of aces or a pair of kings. [...] You'll win more money when you make a hand with it [and] you'll lose less money when you miss [your] hand".

Brunson has a good point, but I've alluded before to my opinions on how Brunson's classic strategies apply somewhat narrowly to modern NL HE. His strategies do apply in many games, and his notes about AK are correct in the right game. So, to effectively use Brunson's advice, and to effectively win money with AK, we have to consider what games are most similar to those that Brunson was writing about.

Brunson's advice applies best to tight games. "Running over people", the classic power poker play loved by the pros, requires that your opponents play meekly and give up easily when raised. In those situations, AK is indeed a strong holding. If we are very aggressive pre-flop with AK heads-up against a tight opponent, one of three things happen: (a) the opponent folds because he holds a meager hand that can't take a big raise and/or reraise, or (b) the opponent holds a big pair and reraises (in which case we can make a correct fold), or (c) the opponent calls, defining her hand to likely be a pair lower than KK or two big cards (perhaps something we dominate).

Every one of these outcomes is beautiful for us. In (a), our opponent gives up and we win a reasonable preflop pot without a putting much of our stack at risk. In (b), we get near-perfect information early in the hand, avoiding a confrontation that could cost much of our stack. In (c), best of all, we see a flop with around a 1-to-2.5 chance of flopping top-pair, top-kicker, in a situation where we know that our opponent likely flopped nothing, a weaker pair, or a set. Reading our opponent, should we see a flop, thus becomes somewhat easy and we can't easily make a mistake. If our opponent does have a hand like KQ, or AQ and cannot fold one pair easily, we have great implied odds as we enter the flop.

We must carefully note, however, the key contingency that we placed on these wonderful outcomes: our opponents had to be tight players capable of folding, and somewhat predictable in their starting hand selection in raised pots. Against such an opponent, it's hard to go wrong with AK! No wonder Doyle loves it so much.

But, Doyle plays daily against other pros, who are tight and can make lay-downs. AK just doesn't work so well in the loose, crazy NL HE cash games that most of us play in. We should play AK just as Doyle suggests in tight games, but be much more careful in the loose NL HE games that are too common.

So, we've established that the classic advice on AK is not inaccurate. We can find situations where the classic play need not be modified much, if at all. Next, we'll have to consider why there is this sudden feeling in the poker world that AK is a horrible hand. In the next installment in this series, I'll give some details on why Brunson-style AK tactics often fail in loose lower buy-in NL HE games, and propose some different AK tactics for those games. Eventually, I'll discuss how (likely correct) modern tournament strategy seems to hold undue influence over cash game AK play. That influence is further exacerbating the negative results cash game players find with AK.

Comments

He's Back!!!

[frankieriver.livejournal.com]

Nice to see you back on the scene Bradley.

Great post to kick it off as well, gl.

Re: He's Back!!!

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

Thanks. I hope that my journal can prove useful and interesting.