shipitfish | Greg's NL Game, Tuesday 1 February 2005 (Reply)

As has now become my custom, I'm posting about Greg's games with a delay. Since everyone (more all the time) from Greg's game is reading this journal, it seems to make sense to always be at least a week behind in posting.

That night, the place was packed; there was actually a wait list and consistently 5-8 people standing around in the kitchen waiting for a seat. I got stuck early for a substantial amount (two buy-ins) and therefore was offering my seat for the price of "getting me even for the night". No one took me up on the offer, and eventually I did get even (up $16, actually) and decided to leave. The crowd was too much, Nick was offering a ride (because he wanted to hit-and-run :), and, as I mentioned before, I don't like playing a large stack there if I can help it.

Losing My First Stack with JJ Against Adam

I got stuck the first buy-in because of one hand. I had built a reasonable stack of about $280 or so, when I picked up J J UTG. I raised about $12, and got three callers (that's Greg's game -- $1/$2 blinds but you still get many callers for a substantial raise). I really tend to want to pick up the blinds with jacks, but I didn't mind so much when the flop came 5-7-T of three suits. I slightly under-bet the pot with $48, and two players folded. Adam, who is a loose-aggressive player that reads people reasonable well but tends to like to gamble in big pots, thought for a while and called.

Adam doesn't usually smooth-call bets with very strong hands. Usually, he reraises with his weakest hands if he wants to make a play, reraises with his very strong holdings, abd calls with weak made hands (like bottom or middle pair), trying to "catch a bluff". This is why, when the Q came on the turn, I thought I was good and bet $100. This was a stupid bet, because when Adam raised all-in for another $80, and I was somewhat sure he had a Q, I was being offered 1-to-6.50 to catch his bluff and/or get lucky. Since he might make a play with AT and even A7, or a turned straight draw, I felt that the odds justified a call. I lost nearly all of my stack to his AQ.

Don't Play Big Draws Against Nick; He'll Call

Only a few hands after rebuying, I picked up 2

on the button, when Nick had raised from early position to $12. I was the third person to call him, leaving $36 in the pot as we examined a flop of 3

. I was pretty happy with this flop at the time, because I felt it was a good spot to make a large semi-bluff. Nick led out for $30 into this $36 pot, and guy behind him raised the minimum, making it $60 to go to me. I thought for a while, and looked a bit too closely at the various stack sizes. I noticed that the fellow between us was pot committed, having only another $40 in front of him. I was somewhat worried that he had a bigger club draw. However, this tight-weak player (not a regular) hadn't played a draw aggressively all night, and I figured that he had something like A8 for top pair. Of course, I was expecting his call anyway.

Meanwhile, Nick and I had about even stack sizes, so I figured if I raised a substantial amount, Nick would either fold or go all-in. I felt he either had AK or a pair of Jacks or better. I knew he wouldn't get off aces or kings, but I began to think he'd fold jacks and queens. I decided to reraise to $180, leaving me with only about $60 for which I'd be pot committed.

Nick made his usual move full of tells (which I can't quantify but they are there) that he had an over-pair and pushed all-in. I was sure at this point he had an over-pair, but I did pause for a moment to consider A K which would really trap me. I decided that my tells were accurate and he didn't have that. Surprisingly, the tight-weak fellow folded between us despite his great odds (obviously he had that A8 and realized he was beat), and I called.

Nick had J J which held up. I realized later that my bet had negative EV. Not only did my interest in stack sizes indicated a draw to Nick (I would have been just as interested in them if I'd held a set), but I should have realized that Nick would read it as big draw and only a big draw. He told me later that this was indeed true; he had read my stack-size interest as a draw looking for odds.

Also, even with that, I had no odds that he is going to fold. Rarely does Nick lay down an over-pair. Part of my game against him is that he can't get off overpairs when badly beaten. (He's even written a recent post about this). Since I wasn't a favorite, and I knew Nick wouldn't fold a better hand, I shouldn't have made the bet. I lost my stack.

Stack Recovery Against Adam

I was not planning to stay long at Greg's that night, and I was unhappy that I'd threw so much money into the game only to be leaving very early. Of course, it's never good to think of poker as a "single night game", but sometimes it's worth considering the issue when you have a game, like Greg's, where the buy-in increases as the night goes on. It's important to be able to take the opportunity to recover losses when the money is deep.

My goal, then, was to attempt to leave even. I know it's bad to think about poker like that, but that was my thinking. My best target was Adam, who was playing his usual loose-aggressive game, and I hoped that I could could double up when I rebought $200 more against the $50 I had left in front of me.

My chance came not too long after I rebought. I raised to $12 with A A. Adam called me out-of-position from the blind. There was $24 in the pot and we saw the flop of heads-up 5 7 T. Adam quickly bet $30.

I paused for a moment to think about Adam's play. He wouldn't bet a set here, because he'd go for a check-raise. He wouldn't bet middle or bottom pair, because he likes to check-call such holdings. What would he bet? Top pair with a strong kicker, two pair, and nearly any draw.

Here's the other thing about Adam. He gets very attached to draws. So much so that he'll almost always call with the worst of it with draws because he wants so bad to hit. I decided, after about 30 seconds, that the best thing for me to do was grossly overbet the pot. If he had two pair, I'd be in bad shape. However, nearly any draw, all of which I think he'd call with including the straight draws, makes me a favorite. So, doing something very unorthodox, I went all-in for $252, overbetting the pot by $72.

Yes, I've read Sklansky. Yes, I understand underdog-if-called. The problem is, I am a favorite if called in that spot by Adam. This is the guy who said "I knew he had AA, so I called with KJs" a few months ago about another situation. Yes, I'm devastated when he calls with two pair and an open-ended straight flush draw, but the rest of the time when he has some other draw, I have an edge and I get paid off.

As it turned out, I was in the worst shape I could have been in while still being a favorite. He thought for a long time and called. I said, "Do you have two pair?" He said, "No", and I said, "Then I'm winning" and turned over my cards. He showed 6 9 . This isn't the best match up for me:

990 boards containing 5s Td 7d 
  cards      win  %win       loss  %lose       tie  %tie      EV
  Ac Ah      517  52.22       473  47.78         0   0.00     0.522
  9d 6d      473  47.78       517  52.22         0   0.00     0.478

As you see, I'm just a slight favorite. But, I got my money in as a favorite, so I am happy. I won the pot, and it brought me within $100 of even.

... And the night ends early

Nick was really interested in doing a hit-and-run since he was up a lot. I felt very crowded, because more people than ever had shown up and there was a long wait list. I even offered to sell my seat to anyone who wanted to make me even for the night. As it turned out, I won a couple of small pots in a row, and got back to be up $16 for the night, by way of $400 of variance. When I got to that level, I asked Nick if he wanted to go and he was ready. So, we left around 23:30 -- probably the earliest ever.