shipitfish | Greg's NL Game, Tuesday 25 January 2005 (Reply)

So, for the first time, I've had to go back and read my post that started this journal, wherein I argue that it's a good thing to talk about your poker game publicly. Nearly every regular at Greg's game has started reading my journal. So, the theoretical possibility that most of my opponents are reading this journal has become an actual reality. I read that old entry to remind myself that I really don't mind this happening. I do ask, however, one favor from those regular opponents who were in the hands I describe in this journal. Please do post comments about your thoughts. This is a forum of poker learning, and I would rather it not be a one-way conduit of information. I'd like to hear what you were thinking when you played that hand against me.

So, without further fanfare, I'll talk about some of the hands I played at Greg's NL HE game two weeks ago. For those keeping score, I ended up only $198 for the session, after having a stack of about $600 at one point. Most of the losses are due to the last two hands I describe.

Laying Down Top Pair to Little Jon

I have noticed that I am getting much better at picking good spots to lay down top pair. Early in the night, I'd limped with K J and ended heads up out-of-position against Little Jon (aka fatalerr0r). The flop was T 9 K I bet out the size of the pot, which was only about $12, and he raised to about 2.5 times that. We were about even in chips then, both having about $120 or so in front of us at the start of the hand. I thought for a short while. My read told me with strong certainty that Jon was pushing a pretty strong draw. I thought about my options, and really thought I wasn't in a great spot. My kicker was weak, and if my read was off even 20% of the time, I'd surely end up playing for all my chips as a huge underdog and out of position. Even if I am right on my read 80% of the time, it's unlikely that I'll make any more than the $42 in the pot already if I move in, so I'd have to move in for about $110 or so to win only $42. I could just call, and move in if a blank comes, but while I'm sure a club helps Jon, I don't know what sort of straight draw he might have to go with it. So, Jon's bluff outs are basically all clubs, 8s, 7s, Js, and Qs. I finally decided that I'd have to play for all my chips right there on the flop, or let it go to the raise I currently faced. I chose the later, said, "I think I'm winning, but you've got a monster draw", and folded the K face up. I was hoping that Jon would show his hand. He showed the 6 8. As it turns out, after running the numbers, my hand holds up to win 59% of the time, but given that I couldn't put Jon on his exact two cards, I couldn't be sure what turns were safe for me. I'm pretty happy with the lay-down. I might as well wait for a better spot.

Checking Down the Second Nuts on the River

I won a good pot against a relatively new, tight-weak player a bit later on. I had J T and limped in from the cut-off seat. The button folded, and four players saw the flop with $8 in the pot. The flop was very favorable: K Q 7. I was somewhat surprised when the Tight-Weak fellow bet out $8 from early position into the field. I thought at this point that he might very well bet out a flush, figuring it would be a somewhat deceptive play. Although, I thought more likely he held KQ or something like that and was trying to keep bare diamonds from drawing. Someone called between us, and I called. The turn was J with $32 in the pot.

To my amazement, Tight-Weak bet again, just another $8. This was bizarre. This player knew enough to bet the pot if he was afraid of draws, so the whole thing didn't make much sense. I was holding the second nuts, though, so I decide to raise the pot, and made it $56 to go, leaving the pot at $112 and $48 to him. I expected to win right there, but I didn't want him to draw with the bare A. He thought for about 3-8 seconds, and smooth-called. I was actually worried now. What hand can he smooth-call there with? If he has a weaker flush, I was somewhat sure he'd move in, and it was basically what I expected. I thought that he'd fold top-pair for sure, and it seems strange he'd stick around with two pair. I started to believe that either he flopped a set of 7s, or that he actually flopped the nuts. I probably had trouble hiding that amazement as the river fell 6, and I must have looked truly flabbergasted when he checked it.

There are now so few holdings in mind that I thought he'd pay off. I suppose he might pay off about $40 or so with a set of 7s, or a weak flush, but I really felt that I couldn't call a big check-raise. What can he check-raise with there but the Ace-high flush? This guy hardly plays any pots at all, so I didn't have a wealth of experience to think about. I decided that winning that extra $40 wasn't worth it, because if he did choose to check-raise bluff with a set or the bare A, I couldn't call. I say aloud: "I am pretty sure I'm winning, but I don't like the way this hand played out. I'll check." He showed KQ (!?!?), and I won.

Little Jon berated me for not betting the river, but upon review, I stand by my decision. I believe that the value bets that he'd pay off are too small to risk losing the whole pot, because a check-raise is devastating given the action. The guy still had another $100 or so in front of him, and lacking a better read on him, it'd be tough to call $100 to win $400. His smooth-call on the turn was just too suspect. Plus, I got some valuable information about his play.

Deep Stack Out of Position Against Bao Leads to Disaster

The "hand" of the night -- the one I've thought about for the last two weeks -- was against Bao, who just started reading my journal specifically to find this information. So, read up, Bao. I'd appreciate it if you'd come clean and say what you really had. It was an excellent bluff, (as I feel now that it was) but I think my mistake wasn't failing to call but playing the hand at all.

It all started when I got a big stack. This situation, and others like it recently, have shown me that the biggest leak in my NL game is playing big stack vs. big stack out of position. I end up either playing tight-weak in that case, or committing far too many chips to the pot, and then being out-played by a well-timed huge bet.

I picked up Q 3 in the BB. Six people limped to see the Q 7 8 flop. I liked this holding: top pair with the third-nut flush draw. I led into it with a $6 bet. I bet small because I wanted to find out if a stronger Queen was out, and decide if my only useful holding was the flush draw. However, I planned this to be a "false weak lead" and was going to reraise nearly any raise, hoping to put someone off a better queen with outs remaining if it didn't work. Bao quickly raised to $16, and I thought for a few seconds, and made it $48 to go. Bao thought for but a second or two and called, splashing the pot.

I really felt that Bao was drawing. I first thought he'd make a stand right there with two pair or a set, and even top pair, and Bao often likes to play flush draws aggressively. But, another $32 is a relatively big bet to call, so I began to wonder what was actually going on. I decided that I needed to bet big on any turn. When 6 fell, I thought for only a few seconds, and put $64 into the $104 pot. Bao called almost immediately. It was a mistake for me to bet so fast, as it's uncharacteristic that I think that fast, but this time, I had -- unforutnately for me.

I had virtually no idea what Bao had at this point. The only feeling I had was that Bao was very committed to this hand. I was convinced that whether he had a made hand on the flop, or if he was drawing and missed, or if he was drawing and made it, he was prepared to bet all his chips on the river. I had no read on what he actually had, but I had a pretty certain read that he was planning to play this hand for all his chips. His stack, even after all this betting, still stood formidably at around $240. I was facing a huge bet on the river.

As the river card was coming, I began to think: "Is there any bet I can make here that will inspire Bao to fold?" The pot was just under his stack size -- $240. I didn't think he'd fold for $100, although I knew I was getting called with every hand that beat me (remember, I have top pair, no kicker if the flush doesn't come!). I was sure he'd move all-in if I bet anything less than about $100. I had more or less decided what I'd do: I'd go all-in if the flush came, and check-fold if it didn't. I watched Bao for a read when the 9 came, but got no further read. Here I was with my top-pair, no-kicker, facing a four-straight on board. I checked.

Bao sat for a while and thought. He stacked and restacked. I sat thinking, "I wonder if I should call a small bet?" He finally, after about 15-20 seconds, declared "all-in" as I had expected him to do. I asked for a count, already knowing it would come up to $200 and some change. I didn't really consider calling, although I showboated a bit that I was making a big lay-down; of course, it wasn't one. Bao later said he held A 5 and had made the idiot end of the straight on the river. I actually don't think so, because I think he would have checked or made a smaller bet with that holding. I think that he either flopped a good hand (e.g., two pair), or was bluffing with Ace high and a busted flush draw on the river. I am curious to hear what he'll say here, if anything.

But, whether I folded the best hand or not, I made many mistakes in the hand. The primary mistake was that I should have been willing to fold my hand to the raise on the flop, or if not that, considered strongly a check-fold on the turn. I had no read on Bao that was reliable enough to make my weak holding playable. See, if I'd had a smaller stack, I would have just moved in on the flop. But that made no sense when we were both so deep! In essence, I have got to improve my big stack game, particularly out of position. Until then, I need to simply play much tighter when I build a stack, and focus on playing pots where I can have position. Since everyone has now read this, I know it means I'll be getting bullied for little bets for weeks when out-of-position on a big stack, but so be it. I'm just not good enough to play well in that spot yet, and the cardinal rule of poker is "play tighter in situations where you are unsure of yourself." This pot with Bao taught me that lesson perfectly.

My only solace here was that I wasn't limping from early position with that hand. I was in the BB, and that's my only excuse. Still, I could have even check-folded the flop. What would I have I missed by doing so? A draw to the third-nuts into a $8 pot? Big deal. Another hand was coming right after, I should have waited for it.

Another Bad Beat Against Big Jon

Bad beat stories are boring, so I'll make this one short. I had ATo in early/middle position, and raised to $8 in a short handed game. Four callers, including Big Jon. Flop is AA5. I bet $20, he check-called. Turn is a 6. I bet $50, he check-called. River is 4. He moved all in for $150 or so. I thought for a while, really show-boating, even showing my hand before folding (permitted in Greg's game when facing an action-completing bet), to make sure Jon showed me exactly when he filled up. It was on the river; he showed A4o. The rest of the room teased me that I played it wrong. I agreed with them to be amicable. But, of course I played it right: put my money in against a calling station when I had the best of it, and folded when I had the worst of it. There's a lot of luck in poker.

So much for $500 of profit. I had to settle for $198.