Considering Close Situations

[shipitfish]

Usually, people spend the most time talking about hands where the situation is very close. I think this situation is a close one, but I'd appreciate comments if people think I'm overlooking something.

This is in 6 handed $200 maximum buy in $1/$2 NL HE game online. The button is a new player, having just posted his first blind this round. I sat down a few orbits before and I have only a little over $200. The button has $197, and raises to $7 when the action folds to him.

I called $7 in the SB with 9 9, and the big blind folded. The pot stands at $16 with a flop of 2 3 5.

I bet out $9 into $16, figuring for a fold if he has overcards and a raise if he has an overpair. I'm not going all the way with this hand if he raises; I'll give him credit for TT or something and fold. He just calls. I figure he's capable of doing this with just overcards with an ace for a gutshot. He also could be slow-playing a monster, but I didn't get the sense he could have an overpair, because unless it's aces, he can't really let a card come off.

The turn is the 9 and I led $15 into $34. My hope is that now he continues to call if he just has overcards, and perhaps decides to pounce now if he does have aces or some such. Again he just calls.

At this point, I admit to being confused about his holding. He could have flopped a set, which he continues to slowplay. A4 is possibility, but it seems strange he'd slowplay that now with a two flush on board.

The river is the Q. I led $50 into $64. At this point, if he has AQ and has been ripping with overcards and a gutshot, I figure he'll just call. I was a bit surprised when he moved all-in for $116 more. I didn't really think he'd slow-played QQ all the way down, and that was about as likely as a pure bluff with a missed straight draw — probably together they make up 5% of the time at most and cancel each other out. I decide that he either has A4, or one of the flopped sets, and decide to call, getting nearly 1-to-1.5. He actually held the stone cold, 46o.

It seems to me that I just have to get stacked here, and I'm not terribly unhappy about the play. But, I've been running badly enough that I am in that mood of questioning these sorts of situations and wanting to be really sure I didn't screw up.

I thought a bit about betting less on the river, which would have made it much easier to fold to an all-in. But I felt that there were some hands that would pay off that amount, and given that I didn't know anything about the player, he could easily have misplayed aces or a flopped set.

The other post mortem thought I had was to bet much more on the turn, something an overbet of around $40. The problem is, he might still just call with a flopped set, so the overbet doesn't actually tell me whether he has a flopped straight or not.

Did I royally screw up here, and if so, how should have I played it to lose less? Is this really a close situation, or did I just totally miss the obvious?

Comments

[easy-wind.livejournal.com]

Howdy, I recently added your journal to my friends list. I landed her via mutual "friends."

I think you played the hand fine, just looks like a simple case of a cold deck to me.

Given that he is brand new to the table and you have no read on this guy really makes it impossible to get away from the hand. At 1/2, I don't think I'm ever folding the river to even a very tight and conservative player. And certainly not to an unknown who could be making this play with AA, KK or even AQ (I've seen worse...) !

One thing, are you always just calling with 99 out of a blind to a steal? I think calling is OK, but I also think putting in a third bet 50% of the time or so is also quite good. By firing first at an Axx flop you can often get a better hand to fold... You are also building a big pot early for when you do flop a monster.

Well anyways, just my 2 cents...

[swolfe.livejournal.com]

i haven't read any of the comments, so here's my mostly undiluted opinion:

i'd have reraised PF. everyone open-raises on the button extremely light, especially in short-handed games, and i'd rather reraise as a resteal than take a flop and only really like things when i hit a set.

having just called PF, this is one of those rare situations where i'd probably go for a check-raise on the flop, again mostly as a steal rather than as a hand i want to take to the felt. if called or reraised, i'd probably be done with it unless i turn the 9.

on the turn i'd bet more. if he's calling anything then he'll call 3/4...and unless the river is a 4, i'm willing to stack off.

it's hard to put him on a hand with him just calling down...if i had a big overpair, i'd just call the flop and maybe again on the turn when a TAG player leads into me. put yourself in his position with say, pocket kings...it's a morton's fork situation where you're probably either way ahead or way behind. by raising he's going to push out the hands like 99 and lose more to a hand like 33.

something else, you should try to keep your tone more neutral so that we don't inadvertently give you results oriented advice. sorry you got stacked, did he have A4o? :)

Certainly not a fold there

[(Anonymous)]

How many times have you played a hand like that and saw a flopped set? How about an absolutely horrible bluff? What about some dude stoked with AQ? This has to have happened enough to you for this not to be a fold. Look at it this way, at least he didn't go all in on the turn, when you still had another chance to pair the board.

definition of close

[roryk.livejournal.com]

in poker, close means close to 0 EV which means it doesnt matter

spending a lot of time thinking about close situations is essentially wasting your time

i think you should reraise preflop and try to take it down. make it 24 to go and lead out on any flop for 3/4 of the pot. it is the simplest way to play the hand because you can easily lay down on the flop if you get any action. also you will win right on the flop a lot of the time unless he flops a really big hand. he is open raising on the button so his hand might be very weak and if you just call you have no idea what he has since you didnt do anything to define his hand more.

i'd be happy he moved in on me here on the river. you lost but oh well.

How you should have played it.

[(Anonymous)]

Raising the blind seems like a good idea w/ 99, but let's say you just called.

At the flop, you should be deciding whether to be pot committed or not. If you decide to be, check-raise is the move. If you decide not to be (and you probably shouldn't be, on the flop), obviously check-call. Either way, leading sucks, as it usually does on the flop out of position.

if you checked and called on the flop, lead the turn with a bet that gives you a comfortable (slightly less than pot-sized) all-in on the river.

If you checked-raised and got called, you should be in a good position to go all-in on the turn without making an overbet, so do it.

if you checked and he checked behind, obviously bet the turn and keep firing with most-of-pot sized bets.

Once you have top set, don't think about folding. Just think how you can get the most value out of hands like overpairs.

If he had A-4, don't think "how could I have played this hand better against A-4".

Who would wsih to die, my friend?

[(Anonymous)]

Hi


Bye

Yes!

[(Anonymous)]

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