Remember: A River Check-Raise from a Tight Player Is Never a Bluff

[shipitfish]

I mentioned a few months ago that I suffered some a lot of losses one weekend in March. This is another post about some bad play I made in one of those hands. This hand took place at 02:00 on Sunday 12 March 2006.

I was hanging out with W.D. on Full Tilt, playing nine-handed NL HE as that's what he prefered at the time. I don't usually play nine-handed online; I am primarily a six-handed player. But, regardless of how many hands were dealt, I played this hand terribly.

The game was $1/$2 blind, $200 maximum buy-in NL HE. I was on the button with $152. (I was stupidly playing short stacked because I didn't have more money on the site at the moment.) Ahead of me in middle position, a somewhat agressive player with $252 limped. A passive player (with $150) limped. W.D. (with $325) limped behind them. I had K T and decided to limp as well. The small blind, a very tight player called Silly Sally (with $143) completed. The big blind checked. We saw a flop of 6 A 5 with $11 in the pot (post-rake).

The flop checked around. I can't fault my play here. I had nothing, but in a field like that, I am likely to be called by hands like 78.

The turn was the A. Silly Sally in the SB checked again, and our aggressive player bets $2. I read this as a typical online probe bet. Many aggressive online players bluff the minimum. They seem to hope multi-tablers won't see that the bet is that small and fold things like middle pair.

Behind him, the passive player called (likely with a 6 or some draw), and W.D. called. With $16 in the pot, I am probably up against a six and some draws. I have the nut flush draw, and decide that a semi-bluff is warranted, and make it $15 to go.

Months later, I still don't think the semi-bluff is wrong there. I have major weakness in front of me, and even if the draws call, they may be flush draws, against which I have the best hand and huge implied odds. A six would be hard pressed to call.

Silly Sally, in the SB, is my only caller. If I'd been playing my best game, this should have easily shut me down no matter what came on the river. Sally, a conservative player, has checked twice, and now called a large bet. She has played the hand cagily, but the most obvious hand she could have is 66. Conservative players usually go for a check-raise with a set (a bad play, in my opinion), and when she filled up, there is even more reason to slow play because it is unlikely someone has an Ace.

I hit my “worst“ card, a 9. Making the flush here is awful, but Sally even gave me an out; she checked it to me. I “value-bet” $25, and she immediately check-raised all-in for $100 more. I thought for my full time allotment, but it did me no good. I ignored the point that a conservative player would not call me on the turn with merely a flush draw on a paired board (she wouldn't), and decided she had made a weaker flush and called.

She didn't have the hand she represented throughout the hand — 66 — but rather A 5. Her play seems wrong to me on the flop (check-raising two pair in that spot is something I'd only do if a truly hyper-aggressive player is in the pot), but there is no question that my play was just abysmal. I should have had my wits about me and just checked the river. It would have been annoying to see a smaller made flush in her hand, but I really have to give her credit for a monster on the turn. I hadn't once seen her call with a draw without odds, especially out of position, so there is no way she calls on the turn without at least trip aces. Even if I give her a naked Ace on the turn, I have to give her credit for A9 on the river and fold.

Well, Sally, you earned that $100 bucks with your patient play. Please enjoy a fine meal on me and my donkey play.

Comments

Re: so what she checked two pair on the flop

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

I think checking on the flop from the SB is a mistake (I also never play A-little off anyway, even for an SB complete). She can't be sure an ace will bet either (there were some passive players in the pot), and they might hit a better two pair on the turn. The hand is too vulnerable to check. After the turn, she played it well; the mistakes were all mine thereafter.