shipitfish | Getting the Best of It in WSoP Side Action

No, I'm not talking about cash games at the Rio. I am going for prop bets on statistics regarding the 2006 WSoP .

My only standing action is that W.D. bet me nearly $200 at even money on the registrant count for the main event. I have the over on 8,000, and I think that I have way the best of it. W.D. argues that since the schedule says there are four day one's where 2,000 people play down to 800, that the registration is capped at 8,000. I don't think so; I think it's going to be tight at the end, and they're going to squeeze in an extra table or two on a few of the Day 1's.

If anyone is interested, I am willing to offer that action to others. I'm also willing to bet that Hellmuth won't get his tenth bracelet this year, although I probably wouldn't have taken that bet last night. :)

Anyway, I am generally a prop-bet nut, so I'm willing to talk odds on just about anything if people want.

BTW, total jeers to the World Series of Poker official website (which I won't link to lest I give them more Google page rank then they already have) for requiring Flash just to begin using the site. Let alone that it's tough to make Flash work on Open Source and Free Software computers, but more importantly, Flash makes the web completely inaccessible to the visually impaired. Their site was much better before the overhaul this week.

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

for you prop bet, are you only counting the number of people that actually play, or are you going to count alternates as well. I doubt they'll change the number of max players, but every event is getting sold out and there's a huge line of alternates at each event.

Good question. I think W.D. and I would declare it a push. My feeling is that there are going to be something like 8,100 registered, and they are going to find a way to fit in the last few tables (only 2 more for each day 1). The online sites will put pressure on the Rio to allow every last online qualifier to get a seat; it's a huge deal if an online qualifier for a given site wins. It basically solidifies their business for years to come, so they have a huge vested interest to make sure every last one plays.

I'm not up on the numbers, so I don't know how the 8k number will hold up, but I can't see them selling out. I just cannot see them announcing "well folks, no more seats to the big main event. Even though you have 10k you want to plop down, and even though we rake about 1k (or is it more?) off the top of that, we're not setting up an extra table or announcing an extra start day. It's not worth it, come again next year, thank you."

Quite so. Not only that, but the last few are going to be online qualifiers and/or people from the Rio's own on-site satellites. No way will they keep them, of all people, out.

The sad part is that I am so certain that I am going to win, but I already owe W.D. the money in question from a heads-up match we've been playing for almost a year (we sit down after work every once in a while on Fridays). So, it's sort of a freeroll for W.D., because money doesn't actually change hands if he wins (he just doesn't get the money I already owe him).

Why are you so sure Phil won't win this year? Is there some news that I missed, like he's only playing the Main Event?

No special information; he seems to be playing many events. He lost a heads up battle already, and I think that will kill his spirits. I also think he wants it too much and such things seem to impact him harshly. Wanna make an even money bet that Phil doesn't come out of 2006 WSoP with the most WSoP bracelets (or tied for the most)?

Even money bet would have been a joke but still -- Phil has 10 now.

Yeah, it would have been. I probably would have given 2-to-1 if you'd asked, but I'd be wishing I hadn't now. :)

I'm not sure you'll win the # of entries prop bet. There were actually less players than the 6000 max they had last year. Poker may have peaked even more in popularity since then but I don't know how much more dead money will want to win a seat or pony up $10k.

It's more a gut feeling on my part. There are so many more ways to get a seat and so much more incentive for people to try and get there (like the online sites matching programs for endorsement deals). Seats are being given away at such a rapid rate, I just feel that it'll push just over the edge.

I was thinking the same thing

not that it's peaked, but Harrah's did a good job of making sure there was more than enough room last year, I expect the same this year.

Getting the Best of It in WSoP Side Action

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I don't see it selling out

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phil's out?

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