A Terrible Bluff With a Marginal Hand

[shipitfish]

When I originally posted about last weekend's losses, I mentioned there were a number of hands where I clearly played badly (unlike this hand, where there is actual useful discussion to consider). This post is about a hand that I just played horribly from the flop and thereafter.

The hand started at 13:57 EST on Sunday 2006-03-12 on Ultimate Bet at a six-handed $1/$2 NL table with a $200 maximum buy-in. A player named stealerste with $100 called $2 UTG. I had $166 and received K Q. I decided to make a small raise. Small raises on Ultimate Bet, because the players are often so tight-weak, generally clear the field pretty easily. My goal was to end up heads-up with stealerste. If he didn't limp-reraise, I thought, I probably would go to the flop with the better hand.

A player called fuerte with $364 in the big blind called the $3 cold, and stealerste called. We saw the flop three handed, with $16 in the pot, and I was in position. I didn't really have a good idea of what fuerte had, but felt I had stealerste beat.

The flop came 3 K A . They checked to me, and I made a feeler bet of almost the pot size ($12). This is a pretty standard and profitable play that I make as the preflop raiser with position when checked to on a board with serious draw possibilities — tight-weak players almost always bet out with top pair on boards with draw possibilities.

fuerte check-raised for the minimum. I didn't like this situation, and figured he had a reasonable ace. There is almost no point to call here. At the time, I felt that I could call and represent a flush if the draw came, but that was a stupid move against a weak player. I called, making the pot $64.

The draw got there on the turn with the 4. fuerte made a defensive bet of $15, and I made it $40 to go, hoping to represent a flush. fuerte called rather quickly.

Now, what was the point here of making this raise? At the time, I thought it was a reasonable bluff (and maybe a semi-bluff, since I now had a second-nut flush draw of my own). But, making these sort of turn bluffs against weak players is totally pointless. I was not thinking straight, believing I could run over the table post flop in the way that I do preflop in these games. Yet, the whole reason I play these games is that the players are too tight-weak preflop and can rarely fold top pair on the flop when it hits. Representing that I hit a draw is pointless; I need the actual flush to get paid well, and bluffing is just a waste. At the time, I thought I could make some quick money bluffing, but that was just a mistake of trying to recover legitimate losses earlier that weekend too quickly. It was the very definition of tilt. No matter what lies we tell ourselves, we are all prone to it sometimes.

fuerte quickly called, and I then put him on specifically the A. The way he called instantly really indicated that he was drawing to beat the flush I was representing. Even weak players think twice before calling so quickly with just top pair if they aren't also drawing to beat the likely made hand.

The river came 9 and fuerte bet $40 into the $144 pot. I knew this was some sort of defensive bet with the A, but I had no clue what his kicker was. Looking back, I should have cut my losses right here and let his defensive bet win. But, it was too enticing — knowing that he almost surely didn't hold a made flush — that I pushed for $97 total.

What a terrible play on my part! I'm offering about 1-to-1.75 when he has already shown that he's somewhat skeptical that I made a flush. I thought at that moment that he'd play like I would — another common terrible mistake. In the moment, I believed I was making some “amazing” read on his defensive bet that he would fold.

The truth is, I couldn't eliminate a made flush on his part here, anyway. This could be a bet specifically designed to entice me to do what I'd just done — push and try to bluff him off the naked A when he actually held the nuts. Indeed, the way the hand played out, the street-by-street action could easily indicate something like A 10! Instead, I put him on the one hand that I had a chance of bluffing and threw my chips away.

fuerte called with A 4. Of course, he should have thrown away two pair there and certainly shouldn't have check-raised the flop (I deeply wish he'd bet out, of course, because I would have folded), but my play is substantially worse than his.

I have to remember I'm in these games because people do terrible stuff like this and I have a real opportunity to make big scores (and do, regularly, when playing my best game), when I don't get tilt-induced fancy play syndrome and make very stupid plays.

Those of you who think you are immune to this, no matter what stakes you play at, don't continue to fool yourselves. Despite adequate bankroll, overconfidence and that desire to end the weekend “up”, mixed with some reasonable but useless reads can get the best of the best of us.

Comments

So why

[salvelinus.livejournal.com]

did you think that you could represent the made flush to this guy? He holds Ac, with the Kc on the flop (you didn't know that at the time, but you did know that you don't have it). What could you conceivably be raising pre-flop with that would make your flush on the turn? QcJc? QcTc? You didn't state your position in the hand (only that it was at least 2 past the BB). I know that it is 6 handed and raising requirements are lower, but you seemed to forget to consider your action pre-flop in post-flop play.

Also, what's the evidence that this particular player is tight-weak? Throughout your post, you characterize all of the players on UB $1/2 nl as weak, but give no evidence that this particular player is so. At least you realize that you played that hand terribly, and that your feeling of superiority got to your head and that you forgot to think about the fundamentals. Always thinking about players in generalities and not treating them individually is harmful, as you found out.

Re: So why

[shipitfish.livejournal.com]

Indeed, it was a terrible play. You're quite right that the story of my hand doesn't add up at all. QJs is a possible raising hand from the cutoff seat (to answer that question), but you're right that it seems unlikely I'd do so after limpers. I didn't consider the preflop action relating to what I was representing. I also didn't even know if this fellow was capable of putting me on a hand; I hadn't seen him make any specific read-based plays or say anything in the chat box that he was putting people on hands.

I'd seen this player play probably 40-50 hands and he seemed to fit the typical player profile on UB. But, I surely didn't know enough about him to make an unorthodox play; solid poker is best when your best information is still more or less a generality. Poker Tracker was showing him as passive, tight and taking only 15% of hands that saw a flop to the river, but that wasn't enough to go on here.

As to why I thought (incorrectly) I could bluff him: I felt in the moment that he was unlikely to to call an all-in with one pair. He probably was unlikely to do so, but this was pointless risk, because I had no way of knowing with reasonable certainty that all he had was the naked A (indeed, he did have that key card but a paired kicker to go with it, and his hand story even added up to the nuts as well as many other holdings that the average player is likely to call with). I made a number of classic bluffing mistakes, including overconfidence, not having my hand's story add up, and picking a player I didn't know well enough. I make no excuses for my terrible play; I only post it to learn from it by discussion.