More High Stakes Poker on TV

[shipitfish]

I watched Episode 3 of High Stakes Poker on GSN last night (I note that I am behind on these, so perhaps you all saw it already; it repeats enough that I can pick my night for viewing). As I wrote about before, this show continues to live up to its promise: "real poker", in a cash game format, on television. It's funny, actually, how the announcers have to explain how cash games work (e.g., players being able to leave any time they like). They must assume an audience familiar only with tournament poker!

On the topic of announcers, I want to take a moment to note about Gabe Kaplan. I firmly believe that he is the best poker announcer that I've ever seen on television. It's clear that before (or after?) he played Mr. Kotter, he gained some broadcasting experience. I've seen him do some older WSoP broadcasts (late 1990s), and the National Heads-Up Championship on NBC, and his skill as an announcer is far above the rest. The main reason is that he doesn't usually over-dramatize the situations (ala Mike Sexton), and he explains in reasonable details why players might make decisions that they do. It's actually considered and well-thought-out commentary on what is happening, rather than empty verbiage designed primarily to induce a false sense of excitement.

I should note, however, that even he was unable to explain on of the strangest hands I've seen yet on the show. Perhaps one of you can help me understand the thinking behind it.

The pot in question was between Daniel Negreanu and Barry Greenstein. Dan had over $1 million and Barry had about $170,000 (remember, this is real cash, not tournament chips!). Dan had raised from late position with K 9 and Barry called with A J. The flop came 3 7 2.

Dan of course checked, and Barry bet out about the size of the pot (about $15,000). Dan check-raised for $1 million total. Now, I think Barry has to put Dan on a small flopped flush. I agree that with the second nuts, Dan's play is a bit unorthodox, but perhaps Dan has read Barry for exactly the A. However, more likely, I suspect that Dan thinks Barry is either on a total bluff (in which case he calls nothing anyway) or has flopped a smaller flush and will probably put all the money in.

Amazingly, Barry called this massive overbet! Why would Barry call with A J. He has to puts Dan on something like T T to make this call correct:

990 boards containing 7c 3c 2c 
  cards      win  %win       loss  %lose       tie  %tie      EV
  Ac Jh      519  52.42       471  47.58         0   0.00     0.524
  Ts Th      471  47.58       519  52.42         0   0.00     0.476

Indeed, even if Dan has the T, Barry is no longer a favorite because of the blocker in Dan's hand:

990 boards containing 7c 3c 2c 
  cards      win  %win       loss  %lose       tie  %tie      EV
  Ac Jh      493  49.80       497  50.20         0   0.00     0.498
  Tc Th      497  50.20       493  49.80         0   0.00     0.502

I can only think this was a mistake on Barry's part. Did I miss something? Other than pure tilt/gamble, how can he make this mistake? What read can he reasonably make here that makes the call mathematically correct? Is he so sure that Dan has a pair lower than jacks and not a club in his hand? Does he just want to show Dan that he can't dominate the table anymore with his big thud of a million dollars wrapped in bands?

Anyway, the story ends with the J on the river and more money being shipped to Barry than nearly all USAmericans make in a year.

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