I didn't see the episode, no GSN damn, so I'm estimating numbers.... let's see, he is calling about $155K, for a $185K pot. a little better than 1:1.2 and he is getting the odds to call if he thinks he's got better than a 46% chance of hitting.
DN is known to make crazy plays, so he could have almost nothing, DN is just that aggressive. If he puts DN on the flush and he needs to out draw him, then he only has 7 outs - just under a 30% dog. puts DN on a pair ten or less, 6 (a/j) + 8 (other clubs) 14 outs, little better than 55% favorite. If DN just has just over cards BG is a big favorite.
But an all in reraise on a flushed board sounds like a drawing hand that skimmed the board, not really hit it too hard. DN is known to open raise with all sorts of stuff, so it's be easy to put him on top pair, Kc kicker, which gives BG 13 outs for above a 50% favorite.
It's hard to put a very aggressive player on a made hand when the raised preflop and then reraised all in. All-in bets just scream steal/weakness. Maybe BG picked up a tell that reinforced him thinging DN was not strong.
Like I said, if my numbers are right (I'm not sure what BG had left after his flop bet) then he only needs a 45+% chance of winning.
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Date: 2006-02-01 06:22 (UTC)let's see, he is calling about $155K, for a $185K pot.
a little better than 1:1.2 and he is getting the odds to call if he thinks he's got better than a 46% chance of hitting.
DN is known to make crazy plays, so he could have almost nothing, DN is just that aggressive.
If he puts DN on the flush and he needs to out draw him, then he only has 7 outs - just under a 30% dog.
puts DN on a pair ten or less, 6 (a/j) + 8 (other clubs) 14 outs, little better than 55% favorite.
If DN just has just over cards BG is a big favorite.
But an all in reraise on a flushed board sounds like a drawing hand that skimmed the board, not really hit it too hard. DN is known to open raise with all sorts of stuff, so it's be easy to put him on top pair, Kc kicker, which gives BG 13 outs for above a 50% favorite.
It's hard to put a very aggressive player on a made hand when the raised preflop and then reraised all in. All-in bets just scream steal/weakness. Maybe BG picked up a tell that reinforced him thinging DN was not strong.
Like I said, if my numbers are right (I'm not sure what BG had left after his flop bet) then he only needs a 45+% chance of winning.