Confused

[shipitfish]

I am so confused by poker at this point, I wonder if it is even possible to have a mathematical certainty to win -- even over the long haul. I'm playing at the lowest limits, at 1/2, 2/4, and some 3/6 on Party Poker. I have lost every single night for the five nights I've played; a full $300! At one point, I actually got good starting hands for five hands in a row, flopped the best hand, value bet all the way, and was rivered by three outers every time (in one pot, a guy capped on the flop, turn and river with me when he was drawing to six outs. And he hit). But, the details of the beats don't matter. The sheer volume in a compressed time span is the only curious part. The volume just amazes me.

This game cannot be won without luck. And, frankly, I believe the bankroll levels that you actually need to ride out unlucky years are substantially greater than suggested in any literature. 300 big bets is surely not enough for Limit HE.

I frankly have a hard time understanding the players whom I've met who say they have never had a extended bad run. Save one lucky night at Greg's game in Boston in February, I have not had serious wins this entire calendar year. My game has not radically changed. I avoid playing with "scared money" by dropping down limits. I am playing tight-aggressive poker. I reread chapters in poker books every night. I keep logs.

In fact, when I am losing like this, I look constantly over and over again at my play, much more carefully than I am winning. Indeed, I think my biggest EV losses come when I'm winning a lot. I get careless, feeling invincible, and I play looser than I should.

When I am this deep into losses, I find myself looking at single bets, convincing myself somehow that saving one big bet here or there would have made the difference. But, then I realized that tiny edge of skill can't make a real difference. Luck always makes the real difference. I'd have to find a dozen situations where I could save one bet before I can make up for one lucky 2-outer that someone caught on the river.

Anyway, instead of asking you to listen to more of my bad run rantings, I'd like to hear two things from my readers that would be a big help to me:

• What's the worst run of BBs in limit you've ever had in a row, how long was it, and how long before your bankroll recovered?
• Where online are the best limit games at the lower end right now (I'd like to optimize game selection to the maximum if I can)?

I'd appreciate your help.

Comments

Changing limits and psychology

[(Anonymous)]

I think there are a lot of factors at work here, and I hope to be helpful by addressing some of them:

1. Recognize you're kind of depressed about changing limits
The tone and content of your blog entries suggest a real depression about playing the low limits. Your previous statement that you weren't going to write about it much because nobody is interested is patently false. After all, more people play low limit poker than high limit, so you're audience is going to be bigger. True, people that you previously played 10/20 with may not find the poker insights fascinating, but I'll bet that wasn't the only reason they read you.

You have to take into account your psychology on this. What may be easily blamed on luck may have more underlying factors.

2. Respect the game
Your comments have also suggested that you don't have very much respect for low limit LHE, and you think you can beat it too easily. That's ego, and that's probably contributing to your losses. I've seen it when we've played together at the Borgata where you were waiting for a higher limit seat to open up, and everyone else at the table saw it in you too.

I find that when I'm playing my best game, either .50/$1 or $6/$12, I approach each game, and in fact, each table, as an enigma. It's a puzzle to be solved, and while I know I'm smart enough to figure it out, I don't presume that I am infallible.

You are obviously a good player, and I have no doubt that in the right mindset, you are capable of beating any fair game.

3. Get a better tool
Just go get a copy of PokerTracker already. Even if you just use it to parse the hand histories into a nice exportable format for later import into mysql, that will be an improvement over what you've got now.

And maybe you'll find some of the features of PT useful for reviewing your game. I know I do.

4. A coach can't hurt
We all have friends who play, but few of us have enough confidence in our friends expertise to let them point out mistakes. This will be extremely difficult for you, as your weakness is not humility. If you were to find someone to coach you, I suggest you find someone whose judgement is esteemed enough in your eyes that you cannot easily dismiss their advice, and then let them sweat you.