Ship It, Fish!

( Spoiler alert! I am live-blogging the main event final table which I am watching on pay-per-view. Feel free to click through the link if you want to see what is happening as it happens; be sure to reload often. )

01:00 EDT:

I am live-blogging the pay-per-view ESPN Coverage. I start a new post each hour.

( Spoiler alert! I am live-blogging the main event final table which I am watching on pay-per-view. Feel free to click through the link if you want to see what is happening as it happens; be sure to reload often. )

22:00 EDT:

I am live-blogging the pay-per-view ESPN Coverage. I start a new post each hour.

( Spoiler alert! I am live-blogging the main event final table which I am watching on pay-per-view. Feel free to click through the link if you want to see what is happening as it happens; be sure to reload often. )

20:00 EDT:

I am live-blogging the pay-per-view ESPN Coverage. I start a new post each hour.

( Spoiler alert! I am live-blogging the main event final table which I am watching on pay-per-view. Feel free to click through the link if you want to see what is happening as it happens. )

18:06 EDT:

I am live-blogging the pay-per-view ESPN Coverage. I start a new post each hour.

I had avoided commenting on the WPT Lawsuit filed by a group of prominent tournament players. F-Train has done a good job analyzing the legal merits of the claim, and I know nothing about anti-trust law to debate him; I take him at his word that the case has little legal merit. My thoughts on this are more about whether there is justice in what the WPT is doing, and — regardless of whether or not the WPT violated law — if the poker players have a reasonable grievance.

I really believe that they do. Poker is a burgeoning industry, and the operating procedures of Lipscomb's WPT have mimicked the manipulative tactics practiced by venture capitalists that I watched during the technology bubble. Idealistic, naive, and business-unsavvy techies were manipulated and wooed by a chance at major wealth. They sold away their dreams to high bidders and, in the process, signed away much of their future. Nearly ever dreamy startup crashed and burned, and lots of good ideas that might have thrived if they were incubated in a slower, more mature way were abandoned. This isn't that far from what WPT has done to poker.

There's been an argument brewing, (that F-Train again commented on,) between Raymer and Negreanu over the law suit. Negreanu indicates publicly that the lawsuit is bad for poker by bringing needless and pointless discontent and argument while online poker is under legal fire. Raymer argues that Negreanu doesn't know what he's talking about and lacks adequate knowledge to criticize the lawsuit publicly. F-Train argues that Raymer is being a jerk, that the lawsuit will help only a tiny few. F-Train further argues that Negreanu misses the point too because WPT policies do hurt those very few.

I disagree with F-Train that the suit, should it reach its aims, helps only the few. Granted, I and players like me are huge underdogs to ever satellite into a WPT event and parlay that into a final table appearance. But if we did, do we really want WPT to have full likeness rights for anything they want? And would we ever have the power to fight them if we wanted to? I honestly had been thinking I'd try to satellite to a WPT event someday, but I don't like the idea of having to sign that contract just to play.

As a tangent, note who really benefits when small-time players like myself go for satellites. We're huge underdogs to win, so you might think that the only people who really benefit are the shareholders of the online sites where I play those satellites. However, WPT and the big-time tournament pros alike benefit from the huge fields generated by constant satellite play. Big buy-in tourneys are a pyramid scheme that mostly rewards the greatest tourney players and those who run tourneys (i.e., the WPT). They all have a huge interest to keep me and players like me playing these satellites, so it behooves both parties to respect each other and settle their differences.

Anyway, even as a player with a $24 satellite entry to blow and a hopeless dream, I don't like the idea of signing away broad likeness rights in a non-negotiable agreement. In the unlikely event I get there, the lawsuit certainly helps me should it get lucky and succeed in making the WPT contracts negotiable.

Of course, there is the structure question as well. If I do someday make it to a WPT final table, perhaps I will benefit because the fast structure forces gambling against my likely more skilled opponents. Although, I don't think so. I am better at big stack, small blind poker than I am at preflop-only games, so I would probably benefit, should I ever get there, from a slower structure sought by the suing parties.

So, I do agree with F-Train to a point — the lion's share of the benefit of the law suit goes to a tiny fraction of the poker world. But, if they don't push this, I and other small-time players who might get lucky would never have an weight to push the issue of the unreasonable contracts. If I make it to the WPT by some huge stroke of poker luck (and a small amount of skill), I'd be quite grateful if the rules were changed regarding likeness rights and structure.

I don't know enough about anti-trust law to know if they have a reasonable case that can reach their goals, but I'm glad they are shelling out the cash to at least give it a try.

I also don't think it's bad for poker. If WPT can be smart and make a deal with the players, it means a number of highly recognizable players are back in WPT events and probably approaching final tables. That's good for WPT, and good for poker; the fans like those players. While the rancor may be echoing on two-plus-two and other fora, the rank and file of casual poker fans (who are the ones we can't afford to lose if we want the poker boom to go on just a little bit longer), aren't going to notice the suit in any case. Besides, Negreanu's arguments read too much like “don't question the President in a time of war” for my taste.

Finally, as for Raymer's comments that F-Train quoted, he's certainly being a lawyer snob. I've experienced that first-hand, as a computer scientist who happens to be well educated about how copyright law works with software. Lacking a formal legal education, I've often been treated as if my thoughts were meaningless by lawyers who happened to have taken a copyright class once when they were in law school. In most cases, I knew more about the specific area of copyright on software than they did, but they refused to consider that as even feasible because I couldn't put Esquire after my name. Raymer is being a jerk to assume that just because someone didn't go to law school means they aren't smart enough to figure something legal out on their own.

W.D. and I decided to a $50 fantasy game for the main event. I'm not much of a fan of these things, but I know W.D. is into it, and it looked like it might be enjoyable. W.D., experienced from his fantasy football games, organized the draft at all that. I just had to make the picks.

Both of us knew whoever won the coin flip was going to take Daniel Negreanu, and W.D. got him. Negreanu, being so skilled and having a big stack is likely to place high. W.D., actually, thinks that Negreanu could carry his whole team by himself!

The rest of W.D.'s picks were well-known pros. I held on to my list of “tournament players you've only vaguely heard of but make the a lot of cashes”. The picks shook out this way:

My Players	My Chips	W.D.'s Players	W.D's Chips
Ken Jacobs	375,300	Daniel Negreanu	331,000
Allen Cunningham	172,900	Ted Forrest	130,900
David Chiu	154,700	Josh Arieh	85,600
David Pham	112,300	Humberto Brenes	148,300
Phi ‘John’ Nguyen	198,100	Joseph Hachem	114,100
TOTAL CHIPS	1,013,300	TOTAL CHIPS	809,900

My picking theory was this: the key is chip count. Almost any people we might pick have a strong ability to get there and make a huge cash. However, whoever has the largest chip count has the biggest equity. My picking strategy, therefore, was to make sure I had really strong, consistent tourney players whose total chip counts added up to more than W.D's team.

W.D.'s strategy was clear. He picked players whose game he knew and had reasonable chip stacks. I would have liked to get either Forrest or Hachem, probably instead of Phi Nguyen. I could have gotten them, since they were W.D.'s last picks and he wouldn't have thought to pick any of the lesser known pros I was going for, other than Cunningham.

BTW, the winner is the team that has the most cashed money in the main event. FWIW, the full payout structure is now available.

[ I expect I'll have two weeks of posts about my trip to Las Vegas. Much of it will admittedly be boring to those who have been to the WSoP and/or just Vegas before, but it was all new to me, and it will probably be of interest to those who've never been. ]

W.D. and arrived on Monday in the early afternoon. We waited for my bag for far too long (I hate being that guy who brings too much carry-on luggage even though I could have gotten away with it). I walked outside, and my eyes felt surrounded. I felt that the entire surface area of my eyeballs were surrounded with heat. It was a surprising feeling, but not a bad one. It was unique, and I actually enjoyed it. It would be more or less the last time I liked Vegas outside.

We got in the cab line, and quickly were headed to the Wynn. W.D., like he always does so well with people, got the cab drive off and talking completely comfortably about all sorts of things. I'm always impressed about W.D's ability to make other people comfortable. It's going to be a huge poker skill for him when he finally gets to the level where he knows for sure what he needs the other player to do (and he's getting close).

We checked into the room, and it was everything that Greg and others had told me it was. It's a wonderful place and very comfortable: a huge bathroom, new beds, a large plasma TV and a smaller one in the bathroom. The poker room waiting list available right on those very screens. A wonderful large window with a full view of (in our case) the old strip. It did take us two tries to realize that there was a fully automated remote control to open and close the shades — a great feature even though it wasn't IOMCO.

( Then, came the long arduous trip to the Rio and registration for the event. I've put the details behind this link. )

It was quite an ordeal just to get signed up for one tournament. The whole place is a mad house, and I'm sure it's only gotten worse as the main event rages through its many Day Ones and Day Twos. I know many of the pros don't like the riff-raff of all us amateurs showing up. But, the WSoP has become “the poker player's convention”. Walking around, it reminds me of many of the early Open Source and Free Software conferences. There is a sense that everyone there is just the second generation in something that is so very huge that the world is about to discover. Sure, I still think the poker boom won't last too much longer, but like Free Software, and comics, and Star Trek, and Harry Potter, and so many niche loves before it, poker will become a staple part of the mainstream, and the WSoP will for the years to come be the annual event that defines that world. I just hope I can win a main event seat for next year.

As you know, I didn't go too far in the tourney, but I at least won in the Vegas cash games. The downside is that I didn't win enough to pay the expenses (unless I count the $500 Full Tilt gave me for expenses, which I probably should). I ended up about $200, but expenses were around $700.

In other news, I won my prop bet with W.D. It appears there were at least 8,500 people registered for the tourney.

I look forward to going back to mundane poker. I really enjoyed Vegas. There is clearly lots of money to be made in the lower NL HE games ($1/$2 through $2/$5). however, the truth is I had the most fun in the break-even EV mixed games I played.

I look forward to going back, but it is going to have to be in the winter. I can't take the Vegas heat. Even though everything is air-conditioned, there is still waiting in cab lines and other times you can't avoid it. And, those who tell you there is no humidity in Vegas so it doesn't feel as hot are lying to you. Monday was very dry heat and not so bad, but the rest of the week felt nearly as humid as good old New York City. It'll be November before I even consider going back to Vegas.

Oh, and the Wynn poker room rate is well worth it! Thanks to all who told me about it. For $135 or so a night, you can stay in the nicest hotel rooms on the strip, with only the requirement of six hours in some of the best games. (I highly recommend the $1/$3 game there for lower bankroll folks like myself who can handle deep stack games.)

I have many posts to right about some interesting poker situations; they'll be coming in the weeks to come. All of them sit as rough notes now.

I am waiting for a game at the Wynn, and nicely one can watch the QueueOS list from the hotel room (thanks to Greg who told me about that).

For those that didn't want to play the audio files (that means you, W.K.), I busted out of the tournament on the fourth level (100/200 blinds). W.D. and I talked extensively over dinner about each play and it is pretty clear that I could have done nothing differently.

I had an extremely tight table. We played about six hands before we ever saw a flop (one raise, everyone folds). In the first three levels, two hands went beyond the flop. I tried to make sure I was raising and picking up the right amount of blinds. I did, and made it up to 1,800 at one point. I got dealt only three pairs (QQ, AA, and 22) and one AK. I took a flop with a KT on the button and a KJ in middle position, both after limpers ahead. I took a flop for a raise with 85s and bluffed with a gutshot and got a fold. When I had the QQ and AA, I raised and everyone folded. When I had 22, I raised, got called, and folded when I bet and was raised on an 87Q flop.

I eventually got blinded down pretty hard until I was holding 950 when the blinds were at 50/100. I made it 300 to go with KQs third back from the button. The big blind, a very tight player who liked to get his chips in preflop with big hands, reraised me to 1,200. I am still not sure if he realized that put me all-in or not. I thought through what I'd seen this guy do, and he really liked to get it all-in preflop with big pairs, AQ and AK. Indeed, I'd even say that seemed to be his game plan. I had never seen him out of line, and he always had one of those hands when he got it in preflop. I decided he must have my hand mildly beat (ala JJ) or had it dominated (with AK or AQ). I folded.

W.D. argued that I should have just pushed the 950 to start. I think not. Making it 300 represented more strength than that anyway, since I'm leaving 650 behind. I can be pretty sure if I get moved on, I'm beat, and I was. (When I busted, I asked the guy to please tell me, and he stepped away from the table and whispered Ace king, so I think he wasn't lying. He also sort-of flashed part of his card on folding anyway, and I saw it was either an ace or a duece.)

I looked for a hand to make a stand, and got 92, 34, 45, 27, 63, and the like for the next round. I took the big blind due to lack of hands to make a stand, and got 46s in the blind. I was ready to call it off with that (figuring two live cards against a raiser), and they actually gave me a walk. That bought me a round, and I got more of the same for nine hands. I got K6o under the gun, and almost moved in. I decided instead to take my chances in the blind.

A tight player raised it, and I had T8o. I said, I don't think you knew you were raising a short stack, did you? and he (I believe honestly) said he didn't. I knew he was strong, but felt it was likely AQ or AK, and decided to take my hopefully 30% equity right there and hope to double up and survive. He actually held AA, and a board of QQ6T left me drawing to only two outs on the river, which was a 7. (Too bad the flop had to overpair me, and take my fighting chance.)

I think the only big mistake I might have made is not moving in with rags to try to steal earlier after the KQ incident. I'm happy with my KQ fold, especially after finding out I was right, but it gave me a fighting chance had I picked up hands I could move with. It's a fast blind structure and you have to get lucky early.

I'm very glad to have played the way I did, and a 20 hand dry spell happens. That's just poker. I think I'm unlikely to ever play a small WSoP event like this again; the luck is too great. I am just glad that I didn't make it close to the bubble, and have been forced to play until 2AM or later last night, and then back today for a few hours before even getting close to the money.

The cash games are interesting here. I played a good amount at the Wynn, and I absolutely love playing 1-3 blinds with deep stacks, which a no cap buy-in permits here. Bellagio was nice, and I got to gawk at the “big game“ (with Gus Hansen, Jennifer Harman, Daniel Negreanu and Eli Elezra), and the games seem loose. But, I see why people love the Wynn, and I'm glad I picked my time to play here.

By the way, a little trick: like Foxwoods, they don't notice if you fail to check out and come back during the day, so you can get hours fast by not checking out and making sure you check out before it gets too late.