I'd have to rewatch the episode to get the numbers just right. 1:1.2 is
probably about correct, although it might have been a bit less. I saw it
as more or less an even money proposition, because Dan's overbet left him
darn close to 1:1, even if it wasn't exact. Anyway, with seven outs, he's
a 1:2.6 dog and has to fold.
While Dan is capable of making that huge bluff or semi-bluff with a
worse draw, I think Barry can get the right read. I mean, I had
the advantage of a hole-card cam, but I think someone at Barry's
level could have read him with some confidence for a made flush.
Of the hand we saw, Dan had only used that giant all-in overbet
on his vulnerable made hands, which in this spot screams "made
small flush". I just feel that Barry must have to be pretty
confident in his read for the numbers to work. I suppose it
could just be called a bad read that got lucky.
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Date: 2006-02-01 17:00 (UTC)I'd have to rewatch the episode to get the numbers just right. 1:1.2 is probably about correct, although it might have been a bit less. I saw it as more or less an even money proposition, because Dan's overbet left him darn close to 1:1, even if it wasn't exact. Anyway, with seven outs, he's a 1:2.6 dog and has to fold.
While Dan is capable of making that huge bluff or semi-bluff with a worse draw, I think Barry can get the right read. I mean, I had the advantage of a hole-card cam, but I think someone at Barry's level could have read him with some confidence for a made flush. Of the hand we saw, Dan had only used that giant all-in overbet on his vulnerable made hands, which in this spot screams "made small flush". I just feel that Barry must have to be pretty confident in his read for the numbers to work. I suppose it could just be called a bad read that got lucky.