![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
shipitfish) wrote2006-12-06 07:52 pm
It's Probably an Obvious Fold … If You Bet The Turn
While waiting for the complicated email indexing to run for this Real Life project that has taken much more time than I thought, I finished this markup on this old hand from this past May.
This hand is from a live game, $2/$5 blinds $500 maximum buy-in at Foxwoods on Friday afternoon; the weekend crowd has just begun to descend. I have just doubled up and have little more than a grand in front of me. I have a somewhat loose image, because I made what some at the table were arguing was a questionable call with a draw on the turn a few hands before, and the result had caused the double up when the draw hit and the other play paid off for his whole stack.
The game had mostly been tight, with a few loose players feeding the others, usually by overplaying one pair against stronger holdings.
I was on the button with Q
The BB and the limper folded, and I thought for a while. I didn't think he'd likely put me on a total steal, so I felt that his range couldn't be too much wider than AA, AK, or KK or maybe JJ. I didn't really see him playing any other hand this way, given how tight he'd been. I had not, in two hours, seen him reraise preflop at all. However, he had about $900 behind, and I decided to call, primarily feeling that my hand's primary value was implied odds for a set. If I flopped queens as an overpair, I'd have to be really careful.
The flop was in the top three of bad “set flops” in the
deck: K
My opponent bet out $75 into a $162 pot relatively quickly. At that
point, I mostly eliminated a set of KKK. In addition, the manner and
speed in which he bet, and the way he reacted to the flop made me feel
really strongly that he must have held the A
I thought and decided to call. I was pretty confident he held the
A
With $312 in the pot, a tough turn card came: A
This is likely where I made the primary mistake of this hand. I began
to feel at that point I must have the best hand, and he was probably
drawing with A
I was very surprised when he check-raised all in, for another $440 on top of the $300.
I was now getting about 2-to-1 to call, and I thought for a very long
time. I eventually showed my hand, which is legal at Foxwoods to get a
read in heads-up all-in situations in cash games. The fellow kept
starting back at the stub in the dealer's hand, a tell that I often have
seen, which usually indicates someone is drawing. However, I finally
decided that this small tell wasn't enough to make the call — the
action seemed to indicate he had aces with the A
After the hand, W.D. (who was at the table) mentioned that most people at his side of the table were convinced he had a ten, possibly with or without the flush draw. I never really thought he could have a T in his hand. If I was beat, I was sure it was by a bigger set. I finally decided that the most likely hand was AA, because he probably would have just bet out again with AK or KK on the turn. I folded.
I was flabbergasted when he showed me the A
After the hand, I simply joked that I knew the last spade was coming and therefore decided to fold.
Looking back now, I think the primary mistake was betting out the turn. Even if I think I have the best hand, there is no reason for the pot to get any bigger. Just as I felt on the flop that a check-raise was a problem, I can't really stand a check-raise on the turn, either, evidenced quite obviously by the fact that I folded when he did so (albeit perhaps incorrectly). If I just check the turn and the board pairs, I might win a huge pot against a strong flush (or occasionally lose one to a straight flush :), but if it doesn't pair, I can see what kind of defensive bet he makes on the river and reassess.
But, this remains the most complicated fold I've had to make all year, even if I'm pretty sure now I put myself in the bad spot by betting and/or betting too much on the turn.
no subject
no subject
Yeah, it's amazing to me that checking the turn is such an obvious play to me now. Yet, right after it happened, I remember telling W.D. that I just couldn't figure out what I could have done differently. I am actually somewhat surprised, but a bit relieved, that my game has obviously improved since then.
At the time, I believed that the impetus was, given my certainty that he held at the A
, and since he might have me
beat, I had to bet to (a) “see” if I had the best
hand and (b) charge him.
My thinking at the time was clearly wrong-headed, because I don't have a plan when he does check-raise. Yet, the plan on playing the river is quite clear once we've gone check-check on the turn.
I like how you categorized it as the “unintentional bluff”. I clearly had misread this fellow, because of his tight play, as a much stronger player than he was.
no subject
(Anonymous) 2006-12-07 05:13 am (UTC)(link)Chris
no subject
no subject
This stems from several things, one being our hundreds of hands played together (albeit years ago). Note that this is just an opinion, but considering your only-two-hour read of a somewhat solid, fundy player, your bet screams of flopped set/two pair or complete bluff, imo. Why? (a) you don't have AA or KK, and (b) you don't have a T or flopped flush.
You will only be called/check-raised by better hands than yours, except for JJ or AK. Where's the ev there?
Why the constant bet-pot play? Would/can you think about 175/225 here? Against a 'good' player it is a lot more scarier than the auto-bet-pot and much easier for a traditioinal player w/ AsKx to call. FYI - I'm pushing or folding to your $300 here unless I have an actual hand (all three of which you don't want, and no, it wouldn't be poorly thought).
Given his play, I would have been deathly scared of AA.
I prob would have thought about the 175 bet but would have checked. It makes river play a helluva lot more read-dependent, but imo the right play given stack sizes, your read, your holding, etc. The auto-bet-pot does not work against even slightly more sophsticated players.
Just a thought...
no subject
Indeed, as mentioned in other comments and in the post itself, checking the turn has got to be right and seems so obvious these many months later.
I actually had, honestly, lost count of the pot size and thought I was betting 3/4ths at the time, but later in my notes saw that it was a full pot bet. But, I do agree with you that a near half pot bet is right, but the check is even better. Stupid donkey mistake on my part.
no subject
no subject
Yeah, I suppose. I can't, of course, be 100% sure, so I figured I might as well take a card. What percentage of certainty do you think I need on the read of A
(Kx|Ax) to make the raise right
there on the flop?
no subject
you guys have 1000 in front, preflop betting knocks it to 925
pot is like 225 after his 75 bet to kind of round everything off.
you put him on ak or aa or kk or maybe jj. you beat aa and jj. you lose
to kk, so if he's even money to have jj or kk it doesnt matter really what you do. if he can have AK with the A of spades and whatever then there is like no chance he is not putting his money in since he has top pair and a flush draw and a gutterball to the nuts. i'd like to get all the money in right now, and i think he will do it with any of the hands you put him on. since i am viewed as slightly loose i hope that he will stack off with AK with no spade and i will lose him on the turn if a spade drops because i might be viewed as a retard too. i think he'll probably fold if i make a big bet and he has ak no spade but he might move in thinking i was semi-bluffing. he will go all in with AK with a spade probably since he has a million outs even if i have two pair. he will go all in with KK but oh well. also with JJ he will go all in. so i want to try to get it in right now and a big reraise on the flop is the best way.
vs his range:
AA-JJ,AK 31.56% 6,921 1,155
QcQh 68.44% 15,684 1,155
assuming he folds AK with no spade:
AA-JJ,AsK 40.56% 5,697 651
QcQh 59.44% 8,502 651
assuming he folds AA with no spade:
AsA,KK,JJ,AsK 45.19% 5,121 495
QcQh 54.81% 6,264 495
assuming he never has JJ:
board: KsQsJs
Hand Pot equity Wins Ties
AsA,KK,AsK 57.54% 4,992 270
QcQh 42.46% 3,648 270
taking away JJ gives him about 12% points in equity, so if you think he has JJ like half as often as KK then you're like just about 50/50 so gogogogo. Toss in that he stacks off sometimes with two pair or something if he played a hand weird or some AK no spade or AA no spade hand I think it's time to shove and cross your fingers.
Bad flop play
(Anonymous) 2006-12-09 02:09 am (UTC)(link)You put him on a small range of hands, none of which include a flopped flush. So basically at this point he's either drawing on you, or he's got you beat with a higher set. He's much more likely to be drawing.
It seems what really happened was you decided to try to swap some EV by trading for a reduced variance. You wanted to take another card off the deck and make sure it wasn't a spade before you shoved your chips in.
Also, has the "I showed my hand to get a reaction" move ever worked for you? It just seems like a bad move to me. You have a bad habit of letting people in on your dirty little secret that you'll make huge laydowns. This just plants a huge seed in the minds of all the people who just love to bluff.
Further, although I realize this was a big pot, the dramatic "show my hand" move hurts your image. It basically eliminates the possibility that you're just a quiet dude relaxing on the weekend. It instantly transforms you into somebody trying a move you heard about somewhere, be it TV, a book, or an old Texas roadhouse.. Afterwards, you might as well turn to your neighbor and announce that although you were getting 2:1, you estimated the odds that he had AA, KK, a straight or a flush as being worse, especially when you include the odds of him hitting his flush on the river.
Anyway, I liked the post, and that sure was an absolutely horrible flop for your hand. I would have been sick too to see that.
Re: Bad flop play
I've been thinking a whole lot about Rory's numbers since he posted them, and the importance of going with my read. While my range didn't include the A
Jx that he held, it certainly
was very very unlikely he had some suited A
.
I think you are totally correct about the EV-variance trade-off of taking a card. I did that for flawed mathematical reasons. I didn't want him to be in a big-pot situation where somehow, I gave him odds to get all-in on the flop since it would become obvious I had no flush draw myself. However, this was small-stack thinking. We had enough behind that I could make a big raise, and he'd still not be able to get all of his chips in right there with any sort of good odds. In shorter stacked games, that would probably be a moment where he could move all-in for almost all of his chips and still be getting a pretty good price; that wasn't the case here.
As for showing the hand, in fact, it did help, because he was particularly surprised when he saw my hand and started starting at the stub. I got some real information, that, if I had more clearly thought things through, I think I would have put it all together.
I agree, however, that generally that makes for a bad table image to do those sorts of things. I don't do it often at all anymore (although I used to). I did it here only because I was so on the fence. In the end, it wasn't worth it because even the information I got from showing the hand wasn't enough to push me to the right move.
So, I am ultimately convinced I should have raised on the flop, and be willing to put him on A
Ax and back the hand with my
whole stack, and just live with it when it turns out he has KKK. My
read that he had the A
(probably naked) was strong; I lacked
the courage of my convictions.
This is probably a good spot to work on my game. I am often a worst-case-scenario player, and give too much credit to opponents when boards look scary, even though previous action makes it unlikely that I could be beat.
Thanks all, for your useful comments and advice.
no subject