shipitfish | I Should Be Able To Make This Lay Down

Most of my readers will probably think I am insane for considering this laydown in this situation. I think, however, that I misplayed this hand. I also have somewhat of a moral obligation to post this, as nick_marden once lost a big pot with a very similar situation and I told him what I am telling myself at the end of this post.

I was playing $1/$2 NL HE, $200 max online at Full Tilt Poker. Historically, these games are the types of tight weak games I've written about so often. However, lately, they have been more loose-passive.

I was at a six player table, and a few people had busted. We were dealt a hand with three people suddenly after two people left simultaneously (one busted and one left on his own). I was in the BB with J J. The button, Quyzzie, raised to $7, which was a standard preflop raise. I hadn't been at the table but for a dozen hands, but Quyzzie was playing pretty loose from what I saw, but not with his preflop raises. His vice seemed to be bad one-pair hands on the flop.

The largest stack at the table, who seemed to be a strong player (named Mikechike) made it $20 to go from the SB. I gave Mikechike credit for a big hand here. I figured he had a pair between TT-AA, AK, or AQ.

I had a tough decision. I felt that it was a tough laydown to make three-handed, and a reraise from Quyzzie meant I had to fold preflop. I had $252 behind, Mikechike had me covered ($258), and Quyzzie had only $87. I decided to call the $18 cold, and be done with the hand if Quyzzie reraised or if I missed the set. Quyzzie just called.

The flop came J 5 A. Mikechike paused for a moment and bet $18 into the $60 pot. I actually considered a set of aces as a possible hand. AK was the other very likely possibility, making his bet hoping that someone with a weaker ace would raise . But, I was realistically worried about AA (for all the good it did me).

I decided to set Quyzzie all-in. This way I could look to Mikechike like I wanted to be heads up with Quyzzie, and force him to a decision knowing one player would be all-in. (I expected Quyzzie to call with any Ace, and it seemed somewhat likely he had one — my feeling about his preflop raise was Ace-high.) I made it $67 to go. Quyzzie insta-called (yes, I usually try to avoid that cutesie online poker term.). I really felt he would have thought some about putting his stack at risk with KK or a flush draw, so I was pretty confident he had an Ace. Mikechike called somewhat quickly behind him.

I thought Mikechike might have a flush draw here, but I realized after the hand I couldn't put him on this. The only one that made sense is K Q, and it would have been pretty odd preflop behavior for that holding. In a sense, I think I have to put him on exactly AA at that point, because he'd take the opportunity to protect AK. (Remember, my only read on him is that he's a pretty good, reasonable player.)

Therefore, when the turn falls T, Mikechike checks, and and the pot stands at $261, I think I can check instead of betting my last $166 (which is what I did). Of course, Mikechike "insta-called" in his own right. Mikechike had the only hand that made sense — A A. (For the curious, Quyzzie had A Q — overplaying one pair again. Again, for all the good it did me, my read on Quyzzie was right.)

If I instead check the turn, and that 7 that came on the river arrives, Mikechike likely puts in a value bet. I may have to call up to $100 there, but I might be able to fold for all-in. Indeed, AK seems even less likely when he just checked the turn. Meanwhile, if I check the turn, and the flush doesn't come, how much if any should I call when he value bets top set?

Finally, is this all just a stupid marginal discussion? Should I have made the "more obvious" right play of folding preflop, even though we were three-handed?

I have to admit Mikechike played it as I would have — trying to sell it as a flush draw to two obviously made hands that can't have anything but runner-runner flush outs, and therefore they are left drawing dead on the turn. Even if Quyzzie does have the flush draw, Mikechike can safely check the turn, because I conveniently already charged Quyzzie the maximum to see the river. But, I should have seen past it because no flush draws coincide with the preflop action.

I think I should be ashamed of myself. If it's the 5 J A instead of the A 5 J , maybe the flush draw with an AK becomes more likely and I have to just take the beat. But the board the way it was, I should have walked away $166 richer than I did.

Anyway, all I have left to say to myself (on Mikechike's behalf) on this hand is: Ship It, Fish!

Flat | Top-Level Comments Only

it's not really a question about whether or not to lose your stack here...the question is actually this: did you play it in such a way that AK or worse will get it in with you? if he's a solid player like you said, then he's not calling your turn push with one pair...especially not with the other guy all-in.

i think you need to check the turn to induce a bet from AK/AJs.

if someone bets, then quickly calls a raise, then checks to the raiser, they almost always have either a draw or a monster.

folding preflop depends on stack sizes. you're on the borderline of the 5/10 rule, so you have to ask yourself: will i be able to get his stack if i hit my set? if he's a good player that will generally not go to the felt with one pair, then i think laying it down preflop is fine.

As I suggested in the post itself, I see the merits of checking the turn instead of betting all-in. But, I'm curious: how do you reconcile your very good point of "betting correctly so I get the money in when against AK/AQ/AJ" and "what if the guy does have the flush draw"? As you point out, betting then just calling a big bet indicates "draw or monster". I hadn't played with him for terribly long, but I think this guy wouldn't think AK/AQ/AJ was a monster. But, on the off-chance he does have K Q, don't I need to bet all-in on the turn?

As for whether the guy would get it all-in with one pair, I'm not sure. I think maybe he wouldn't, but many otherwise good players in online $1/$2 games sometimes overplay things like top pair, nut kicker and two pair.

i would find it impossible to put him on a flush draw, especially with the Ah on the board. solid players pretty much aren't reraising KQs from the SB...i think the risk of giving a free card on the turn are minimal, and outweighed heavily by inducing another bet (or a check-call) from AK.

something else to think about is that the raise and check-behind on the turn is a play that i would make if i was the one holding the strong flush draw.

I am in agreement here; I am pretty convinced that check-behind on the turn was the best play. I am still confused about how I should play the heart coming on the river facing a big bet, though, even if I read him as unlikely for a flush draw.

I Should Be Able To Make This Lay Down

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