There are two sources of error in your read-- the first is your read itself. You say you are 90% sure that he has you beat, because of course your read is not 100%. But there is error associated with that number as well, so you may be actually 95% sure or 85% sure but estimate it at 90%. To test yourself, take a line and then take 95% of the line and 90% of the line. Can you tell which is which if you haven't seen the other one? It is very hard to do.
What I am saying is that the pot is so large that folding is a mistake if there is any uncertainty at all. I counsel all of my friends that if the pot is very large and you have a good hand you have to call one more bet in a big pot if you have any uncertainty at all. Calling a bet when you are beat is a 1 BB mistake, but folding a pot you should have won could be as much as a 15 or 20 BB mistake. It is much better to lose the BB than lose the pot.
In this case, with your hand, my opponent would have to show me his hand before I folded. You are right-- it is an edge not pushing. But the edge not worth pushing is folding. Just call in big pots for one more bet on the river.
If on the poker sites you play, you have a showdown won statistic that is high, you are folding too much. It should be like 55% or so, maybe a little less than that. Having one >60% means you are most likely dumping many winners. It is a stat most people don't think about much-- if you track your hands, check it out.
You are an extremely skilled player, but you have three major weaknesses. The first is that for some reason you like betting out into pots with 3-4 people in them with hands like bottom pair, and then folding to raises either on the flop or on later streets. A play I use against you all the time is to call with nothing and bet later or raise with nothing and bet later, because I am getting good odds you will fold. The second major weakness is you play too loose. The third is you call too many raises, both not in the blind and in the blind. I think if you played tighter and less fancy in terms of bets and folds you would crush whatever game you decided to play. You are much better at me than reading people and playing marginal hands well. I think you are a much better poker player in terms of natural ability and I don't understand why you are not playing the highest limits yet. Maybe these observations are why, I dunno.
That being said, I get creamed in Greg's game all the time so.. what do I know? :)
Re: Last hand
What I am saying is that the pot is so large that folding is a mistake if there is any uncertainty at all. I counsel all of my friends that if the pot is very large and you have a good hand you have to call one more bet in a big pot if you have any uncertainty at all. Calling a bet when you are beat is a 1 BB mistake, but folding a pot you should have won could be as much as a 15 or 20 BB mistake. It is much better to lose the BB than lose the pot.
fur coat parable
In this case, with your hand, my opponent would have to show me his hand before I folded. You are right-- it is an edge not pushing. But the edge not worth pushing is folding. Just call in big pots for one more bet on the river.
If on the poker sites you play, you have a showdown won statistic that is high, you are folding too much. It should be like 55% or so, maybe a little less than that. Having one >60% means you are most likely dumping many winners. It is a stat most people don't think about much-- if you track your hands, check it out.
You are an extremely skilled player, but you have three major weaknesses. The first is that for some reason you like betting out into pots with 3-4 people in them with hands like bottom pair, and then folding to raises either on the flop or on later streets. A play I use against you all the time is to call with nothing and bet later or raise with nothing and bet later, because I am getting good odds you will fold. The second major weakness is you play too loose. The third is you call too many raises, both not in the blind and in the blind. I think if you played tighter and less fancy in terms of bets and folds you would crush whatever game you decided to play. You are much better at me than reading people and playing marginal hands well. I think you are a much better poker player in terms of natural ability and I don't understand why you are not playing the highest limits yet. Maybe these observations are why, I dunno.
That being said, I get creamed in Greg's game all the time so.. what do I know? :)